地下管线生存环境因素分析及破坏概率模型  

Analysis on Environmental Factors and Failure Probability Model of Underground Pipelines

作　　者：胡嵩 李文华[2] 王丽萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市市政建设集团有限责任公司,100037 [2]北京市市政工程研究院,100037

出　　处：《特种结构》2016年第5期95-98,共4页Special Structures

摘　　要：根据多年来管线破坏事故统计和现有的检测数据,分析造成管线破坏的主要影响因素,利用SAS软件,采用Logistic回归分析方法对管线破坏数据进行回归分析,建立管线失效概率与生存环境的数学模型,用回归方程说明管线失效概率与主要影响因素之间的关系,揭示管线破坏现象的内在规律,为管线管理部门的决策提供重要依据。The influence factors of pipeline damage were analyzed based on the pipeline damage accident statistics over the years and the existing test data. The regression analysis of pipeline damage data were analyzed based on Logistic regression analysis method by SAS software. In order to instruct the relationship of pipeline failure probability and the main damage factors a mathematic model of the pipeline failure probability and the living environment was constructed and a regression equation was adopted, which can reveal the inherent law of pipeline failure phenomenon. And the results can be referenced by pipeline management.

关 键 词：回归分析 失效概率 数学模型 

分 类 号：TU990.3[建筑科学—市政工程]