云南50年降水均一性与变化趋势分析  

An analysis of homogeneity and changing trend of precipitation in the past fifty years in Yunnan

作　　者：刘苈今[1,2] 张万诚[3] 陈艳[3] 马涛[3] 

机构地区：[1]云南大学大气科学系,云南昆明650091 [2]昆明市气象局,云南昆明650500 [3]云南省气象科学研究所,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第6期888-896,共9页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学联合基金重点项目(U1133603);国家自然科学基金(41365007;41440034;41665005)

摘　　要：均一的观测资料是气候变化研究的基础,对于研究和评估气候变化特征尤为重要.选取全省国家级地面观测台站50年的年降水资料,采用标准正态检验(SNHT)、惩罚最大T检验(PMT)、秩检验(Mann-Kendall)方法进行均一性检验.结果表明云南年降水序列均存在非均一的情况.用SNHT比值和分位数匹配(QM)2种订正方法对检验结果进行均一性订正,并初步分析了订正前后云南50年降水量的线性变化特征.分析表明,订正前后年降水量空间分布特征总体不变,但是局部存在差异,均一性订正消除了突变趋势,使订正后的年平均降水量的变化趋势及分布更为合理.Homogeneous climate series is the basis especially for conducting and researching the characteris- tics of climate change.This paper has applied methods of standard normal test （ SNHT）, penalized maximal T test （PMT） and rank test （Mann-Kendall） study of annual precipitation homogeneity of Yunnan national level ground observing stations in the past fifty years.The result shows there are existing non-uniform sequences in annual precipitations.We have researched SNHT ratio correction and matching （QM） correction methods correct testing results and analyzed rainfall variation characteristics of Yunnan in the past 50 years and after correction in a preliminary analysis.It shows before and after adjustment, annual precipitation spatial distribution remain more or less the same, but there still exit differences in local area.After correction, the mutation trend has been eliminated and the variation trend and distribution of average annual rainfall have become more reasonable.

关 键 词：云南降水 均一性 统计检验 订正 变化趋势 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]