社会视角下考虑波及效应的客户需求变更传播预测  

A Prediction Approach to Customer Requirement Change Considering Ripple Effects in Social Perspective

作　　者：顾春光[1] 杨阳[1] 于国栋[2] GU Chun-guang YANG Yang YU Guo-dong(School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 ,China State Key Laboratory of Mechanical Transmission,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049 [2]重庆大学机械传动国家重点实验室,重庆400030

出　　处：《系统工程》2016年第8期136-142,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目(11XJC630014);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20130191120001)

摘　　要：为降低客户需求变更对定制生产企业的影响,对变更实现准确预测极为关键。为此,从企业客户间的社会关系出发,提出基于客户波及效应的需求变更预测方法。基于复杂网络理论建立包含客户关系网络、客户需求网络及产品特性网络的客户需求—特性超网络模型,并引入三角模糊数表达客户、需求及产品特性间的多重关联;以影响可这性或波及系数为衡量指标建立客户波及效应模型,明确客户间的变更传播过程及影响程度;以某一客户初始更改为前提,提出波及效应下的客户需求变更传播预测模型,分析受波及客户需求更改概率;某实例验证结果表明从客户的波及效应预测需求更改具有较高的准确度。An accurate prediction of customer requirement change is regarded as a crucial and essential way to reduce the change impacts on enterprise. Then, in this paper, a novel prediction approach based on customer ripple effects for requirement change is proposed. Requirements- Features super-network including customer relationship network, customer demands network and product features network is developed firstly, and triangular fuzzy number is introduced to represent the multiple correlation among customer, requirements and features. Accordingly, customer ripple effects model, measured by reach-changeability or ripple coefficient, is established to analyze the change propagation process and influence degree. Thus, a prediction model for requirements change propagation is proposed and all change probability can be determined once an initial change occurs. Finally, analytic results from a case are used to illustrate the model and method proposed in this paper. The results show that the method developed in this paper has high prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：客户需求变更 预测 传播 波及效应 复杂网络 三角模糊数 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]