白洋淀流域未来日最高最低气温变化的统计降尺度分析  

Changes of future air temperature in the Baiyangdian Basin based on statistical downscaling technique

作　　者：王洁[1] 王浩[2] 王彬彬[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学水文气象学院,南京210044 [2]中国矿业大学孙越崎学院,徐州221116 [3]国网电力科学研究院,南京210006

出　　处：《南京信息工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第5期446-453,共8页Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金(41501029);南京信息工程大学人才启动经费

摘　　要：大气环流模型(GCMs)预测的气候变化情景空间分辨率低,不能满足气候变化对水资源影响进行评估的需要.利用统计降尺度模型可以解决GCMs预测的气候变化情景空间分辨率低的缺陷.在白洋淀流域应用统计降尺度模型(SDSM),选取日平均气温作为预报量,根据NCEP再分析数据与站点实测数据序列的相关关系选择合适的预报因子,建立大气环流因子与各站点日最高气温和最低气温之间的统计关系.将数据序列分为1961—1975年和1976—1990年两个时段,对SDSM进行率定和验证.最后将Had CM3输出的未来情景降尺度到站点尺度,模拟白洋淀流域未来时期三个时段2020s(2010—2039年)、2050s(2040—2069年)和2080s(2070—2099年)的日最高气温和最低气温时间序列.结果表明:SDSM在白洋淀流域的模拟效果较好.白洋淀流域日最高气温和最低气温在A2和B2两种情景下均呈现上升趋势,且A2情景下的增幅高于B2情景,山区的增幅高于平原,日最高气温的增幅大于日最低气温.Outputs of General Circulation Models（ GCMs） are inadequate for the assessment of climate change on land-surface in regional scale.Statistical downscaling technique has been proposed as one of the tools to establish the relationship between the meso-scale GCM output and sub-grid-scale surface variables（ such as air temperature）.The Statistical Downscaling Model（ SDSM） is applied to the Baiyangdian Basin in this study,with daily maximum and minimum air temperature as predictors.Selection of appropriate downscaling predictors is based on the relationship between meso-scale atmospheric variables and daily air temperature series in the Baiyangdian Basin,which are obtained from the NCEP re-analysis data set and observed data at meteorological stations,respectively.From the data set during the period of 1961-1990,data of the first 15 years（ 1961-1975） are used for calibration while the remaining data（ 1976-1990） are used for validation.Finally,daily maximum and minimum air temperature scenarios for future periods（ 2020 s,2050s,and 2080s） are estimated using SDSM from output of the Had CM3 at 7 stations,and the temporal trends of daily maximum and minimum air temperature are analyzed. The results show that both daily maximum and minimum air temperature will increase under A2 or B2 scenario.Under A2 scenario,the magnitudes of increase for daily maximum and minimum air temperature are 0. 37 ℃ /（ 10 a） and 0. 40 ℃ /（ 10 a） in the plain area,whereas,these values are 0. 61 ℃ /（ 10 a） and 0. 55 ℃ /（ 10 a） in mountainous areas,respectively.Under the B2 scenario the magnitudes of increase are smaller in both mountainous area and plain area.The increasing tendencies for different areas are quite different.The trend in mountainous area is greater than that in plain area.The results show that both daily maximum and minimum air temperature in the Baiyangdian basin will arise in future.

关 键 词：气候变化 白洋淀流域 统计降尺度 日最高气温 日最低气温 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]