贝叶斯统计方法在华支睾吸虫病诊断中的应用  

The application of Bayesian statistical method in the diagnosis of clonorchiasis

作　　者：韩甦[1,2] 唐巧然 李懿宏[2] 舒晶[2] 文景山[2] 张晓丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所,卫生部寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室,世界卫生组织疟疾、血吸虫病和丝虫病合作中心,上海200025 [2]哈尔滨医科大学基础医学院人体寄生虫学教研室,黑龙江哈尔滨150081

出　　处：《热带医学杂志》2016年第10期1327-1329,共3页Journal of Tropical Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81401684);中国博士后基金(2014M550786);中国博士后特别资助基金(2015T80117);黑龙江省卫生厅课题(2012-753);黑龙江省自然科学基金(QC2014C093)

摘　　要：目的探讨无金标准情况下华支睾吸虫病血清学(ELISA)和粪检(Kato-Katz)两种检测方法在现场应用的效果。方法利用贝叶斯统计方法,对2012年黑龙江省哈尔滨医科大学人体寄生虫病研究所就诊的华支睾吸虫病疑似患者1 316人进行分析,评估两种方法的检测效果。结果 ELISA灵敏度较高(0.98)而特异度较低(0.77),Kato-Katz法灵敏度低(0.96)而特异度很高(0.98)。结论贝叶斯统计方法说明两种检测方法各有优缺点,并对诊断方法做出科学的评估。建议联合血清和粪检方法用于华支睾吸虫病的诊断。Objective To discuss and estimate the application of the ELISA and Kato-Katz two kinds of detection methods for diagnosis of clonorchiosis in the field, without gold standard. Methods Using Bayesian statistical method, a total of 1316 suspected patients from Heilongjiang province Harbin medical university in 2012 were collected and analyzed. Then we evaluated the detection results of two methods. Results The ELISA sensitivity was high （0.98） and specificity was low （0.77）, while the sensitivity of the Kato-Katz was low （0.96） and specificity was high （0.98）. Conclusion Bayesian statistical methods could illustrate two kinds of diagnositic method and make scientific evaluation. We suggested that the serological and Kato-Katz methods should be combined for the diagnosis of clonorchiasis.

关 键 词：贝叶斯统计 华支睾吸虫病 ELISA Kato-Katz 

分 类 号：R532.23[医药卫生—内科学]