三元乙丙橡胶老化与气候关联性及老化程度全国分布预测  

Correlation between EPDM aging properties and climate as well as prediction of the distribution of EPDM aging degree in China

作　　者：吴德权[1] 高瑾[1] 卢琳[1] 李文倩[1] 李晓刚[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学腐蚀与防护中心,北京100083 [2]中国科学院宁波材料技术与工程研究所,宁波315201

出　　处：《工程科学学报》2016年第10期1438-1446,共9页Chinese Journal of Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(51133009);国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2014CB643300);国家材料环境腐蚀平台资助项目(2005DKA10400)

摘　　要：利用三元乙丙橡胶(EPDM)在我国11个典型大气站点暴晒3年的老化数据及气候环境数据,基于对EPDM老化行为分析以及气候环境对EPDM作用机制,探究EPDM老化与气候因子之间的关联性.通过因子分析与逼近理想解排序法,将多个老化指标转化为综合老化值;由灰色关联度分析,得到影响EPDM老化的关键气候因子为辐照度、湿度、温度和降雨;通过BP人工神经网络,建立EPDM综合老化值与气候因子间关联模型.利用我国97个地市级城市气象数据,预测EPDM在未试验地区综合老化值,可视化得到EPDM在我国的老化分布图.图形表明,EPDM在我国西部地区,新疆南部、云南南端、广东南部、海南、台湾等地区老化程度较严重.Based on the analysis of aging behavior of ethylene propylene diene rubber（ EPDM） and the mechanism of action of climate on EPDM,the aging data of EPDM exposed for 3 years in 11 typical material weathering test stations and the meteorological data there were studied to find out the relation between atmospheric environment and EPDM aging properties. By using the factor analysis and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution（ TOPSIS）,the comprehensive values of aging properties were gained. With the grey correlation analysis,sever environmental parameters including irradiance,humidity,temperature were found to be the key climate factors which had a significant relation with the degradation of EPDM. Then a BP artificial neural network that connected the climate factors and EPDM aging properties was built. By inputting the meteorological data of cities,the comprehensive values of EPDM aging properties where weathering test had not been performed were predicted and a distribution map of these comprehensive values was draw out. The results show that the aging of EPDM in the south of Guangdong Province,Hainan Island,Taiwan Island,Tibet,and south of Xinjiang are the most serious.

关 键 词：三元乙丙橡胶 老化 大气环境 关联性 预测 

分 类 号：TQ333.4[化学工程—橡胶工业]