国民文化消费需求的“积蓄负相关性”——扩大文化消费面临的特殊“规律”透视  

On the “Negative Correlations” between the Residents' Savings and Their Cultural Consumption Demand——The Special “Rule” Perspective on the Cultural Consumption Expansion

作　　者：王亚南[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省社会科学院文化研究中心,昆明650034

出　　处：《文化艺术研究》2016年第3期1-14,共14页Studies in Culture and Art

摘　　要：影响国民文化消费需求增长的最直接因素并非产值增长,亦非居民收入增长,而是积蓄增长。居民文化消费与积蓄增长负相关性显著,这一"规律"在全国及31个省域普遍成立。假定2014年全国居民文化消费与积蓄之间的比值保持历年最佳关系,文化消费总量应增至现有14915.39亿元的1.48倍,达到22034.63亿元。居民收入比也在背后起到一定作用,假定2014年全国居民收入比保持历年最佳值而居民积蓄率不变,同时文化消费与积蓄之间的比值亦保持历年最佳值,文化消费总量应增至现有值的1.64倍,达到24426.07亿元。这就是当前扩大文化消费的"应然"增长目标。The most direct factor influencing national cultural consumption demand growth is neither the output growth nor residents, income growth, but savings growth. The rule of the negative correlations between residents, cultural consumption and savings growth exists in 31 provinces of China. If the national ratio of the residents,cultural consumption and savings in 2014 remained the best calendar year, the cultural consumption should be up to 2. 203463 trillion RMB, which is 1. 48 times of the total existing 1. 491539 trillion RMB. The residents ’ income ratio also plays a certain role. If the national residents ’ income ratio remained the best calendar year, the residents, savings rate re-mained the same and the ration between the cultural consumption and the savings also remained the best calendar year, the cultural consumption should be up to 2. 442607 trillion RMB, which is 1. 64 times of the total existing. This is the “ ought to” growth target of the cultural consumption expansion.

关 键 词：文化消费 居民积蓄 负相关性 差距检测 增长测算 

分 类 号：G124[文化科学]