外汇储备与通货膨胀关系的实证研究  

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES AND INFLATION

作　　者：张锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《巢湖学院学报》2016年第5期41-47,共7页Journal of Chaohu University

摘　　要：根据中国人民银行2016年1月7日公布的数据,截至2015年12月31日,中国外汇储备在当年减少了5127亿美元,从而为持续二十多年的上升期画上句号。在外汇储备持续增长的这些年里,通货膨胀的压力也逐渐凸显。外汇储备和通货膨胀的关系一直是国内外宏观经济研究的焦点,文章在理论定性分析的基础上,通过建立相关分析、回归模型等进行定量分析,通过对1995年到2014年通货膨胀与外汇储备的数据进行研究与分析,可得出结论:外汇储备与通货膨胀呈稳定的正相关关系,短期内可能会有偏差,但是长期来看,两者一定呈正相关关系,最后针对所得到的结论提出几点建议,希望能对改善我国外汇储备与通货膨胀的现状有所帮助。According to the data released by the People＇s Bank of China on January 7, 2016, China＇s foreign exchange reserves decreased by 512.7 billion US dollars in the year, as of December 31, 2015, which ended a period of more than two decades of sustained growth. Inflationary pressure is also increasing when the foreign exchange reserves continue to grow. The relationship between foreign exchange reserves and inflation has been the focus of macroeconomic research both at home and abroad. Based on the qualitative analysis of the theory, this paper makes a quantitative analysis by establishing correlation analysis and regression model. Through the analysis of the inflation and foreign exchange reserves from 1995 to 2014,we can conclude that there is a stable and positive correlation between foreign exchange reserves and inflation, and there may be some short-term deviations, but in the long run, the two must be positively correlated. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for the conclusions, hoping to help the improving of the current situation of China＇ s foreign exchange reserves and inflation.

关 键 词：外汇储备 通货膨胀 居民消费指数(CPI) 回归模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F832.6