未来中国近海海冰变化特征的预估研究  

Future projection of the sea ice in the Bohai Sea and the North Yellow Sea

作　　者：祖子清 凌铁军[1] 张蕴斐[1] 刘煜[1] 唐茂宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋预报》2016年第5期1-8,共8页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC19B08)

摘　　要：基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的全球气候预估数据,分析了黄、渤海区域内海表面2m气温的增量,并将该增量叠加在1978—2008年的再分析气象场上,驱动海冰-海洋耦合模式,对2015—2045年黄、渤海的海冰变化特征进行了预估。结果显示:在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5 4种排放情景下,辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾和黄海北部4个海湾的海冰均呈现显著减少的趋势。但随着排放增多,4个海湾的海冰并非单调的减少,而在RCP4.5下减少最多,RCP6.0和RCP8.5次之,RCP2.6最少。对4种情景下的海冰冰情进行平均,可以发现4个海湾结冰面积依次减少438、121、23和84 km2;结冰范围依次减少9、7、2和7 nmi(海里,1 nmi=1.852 km)。就整个黄、渤海而言,未来31a内结冰面积减少24%,结冰范围减少19%,持续天数缩短10%。The future projection of sea ice in the Bohai Sea and the North Yellow Sea is studied. The increment of air temperature at two meters during 2015—2045 in CMIP5 data set, with respect to the historical case （1978—2008）, was diagnosed, and superimposed on the historical climatology to force the sea ice-ocean coupled model to yield the projection of future sea ice. The results show that under different Representation Concentration Pathways （RCPs）, the future sea ice in the four bays all decrease. However, the future sea ice will not decrease monotonously as the emission of greenhouse gas increases, i.e., RCP4.5 corresponds to the strongest decrease, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 weaker, and RCP2.6 the weakest. For the mean over four RCPs, the ice areas in the four bays （Liaodong, Bohai, Laizhou and North Yellow Sea） decrease by 438, 121, 23 and 84 km2, respectively;the ice extents decrease by 9, 7, 2 and 7 nmi（sea mile,1 nmi=1.852 km）, respectively. For the Bohai Sea and North Yellow Sea, the future sea ice will decrease by 24%（ice area）, 19%（ice extent） and 10%（lasting days）.

关 键 词：耦合模式比较计划第五阶段 渤海和黄海北部 未来海冰预估 2m气温 

分 类 号：P731.15[天文地球—海洋科学]