我国货币政策对房地产价格的非线性效应分析——基于MS-VAR模型的实证分析  

The Analysis of the Nonlinear Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Estate's Prices: Based on the MSVAR Model

作　　者：许远明[1] 董勐[1] 张纯博 XU Yuan-ming DONGMeng ZHANG Chun-bo

机构地区：[1]重庆大学建设管理与房地产学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2016年第10期63-74,共12页Scientific Decision Making

摘　　要：通过建立三区制下的MSVAR模型,研究了货币量、市场利率、信贷余额和汇率对房地产价格的非线性影响。研究表明:各经济时期的区制转移特征明显,而扩张性的货币政策比收缩性货币政策更难发挥效果。经济扩张期下,利率政策能较好抑制房价;经济稳定期下货币供应量的稳定房价效果最好;而经济衰退期下前两种措施均失效,信贷渠道能发挥更大的作用。The thesis discusses the nonlinear effect of real estate＇ s price which is caused by currency market, invest rates, credit line and exchange by establishing a MSVAR model of three regimes. The results indicate that the feature of transferred regime is evident during each economic period, but the expansionary monetary policy works worse compared with constringent monetary policy. The interest rates policy inhibits to real estate＇ s price effectively during economic upturns, while currency supply is more serviceable when economic steady period. Both the two policies are invalid during economic downtums, and credit policy works better.

关 键 词：货币政策 房地产价格 MSVAR模型 非线性效应 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]