考虑小水电出力不确定性的小水电与大中型水电站群短期联合调度方法  

A Short-term Joint Operation Method of Small and Large Hydropower Plants Under Small Hydropower Uncertainty

作　　者：吴慧军[1] 程春田[1] 武新宇[1] 李秀峰[2] 蔡华祥[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁省大连市116024 [2]云南电力调度控制中心,云南省昆明市650011

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2016年第21期5879-5889,6032,共11页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家863高技术基金项目(2012AA050205);国家自然科学重大国际合作项目(51210014);国家自然科学基金项目(51109024)~~

摘　　要：小水电出力具有随机性和难以预测性,大规模接入电网后增加了电力系统调度决策的复杂性和难度。针对大规模小水电群出力的不确定性,引入随机规划相关理论,采用情景分析方法构造出力情景集合,提出模糊聚类和聚类综合质量法实现情景缩减,建立当前预测精度条件下小水电预测与未来可能实际情景的条件概率分布,将小水电不确定性转变成为有限个确定性条件情景问题。同时,建立多情景小水电与大中型水电站群联合调度的期望调峰模型,首先通过相似性分析判别当前小水电群预测出力归属预测情景类别,进而获当前预测情境下实际情景概率分布;其次提出基于逐次逼近和关联搜索的水电站群降维搜索算法求解模型。云南电网仿真分析表明,该模型能够有效提升大中型水电发电计划对小水电情景的适应性,增加电网期望调峰效益,提高水电计划的可靠性。It is difficult to make dispatch decisions of power systems when large-scale small hydropower（SHP） connected to the power grid because of randomness and unpredictability characters of SHP. Regarding the uncertainty characters of large-scale SHP, this paper used a scenario analysis method, which is a method of stochastic programming theory, to construct power scenario set for description power characteristics of SHP. And fuzzy clustering and clustering comprehensive quality algorithm were proposed for reduction scenarios while establishment the conditional probability distribution of forecast and actual power under the current prediction accuracy. SHP uncertainty problem was transformed into a deterministic finite condition scenarios problem. An expectancy model for peak shaving operation was established of SHP and large hydropower（LHP） system. The similarity was analyzed between the current forecast power and prediction scenarios in order to discriminate prediction scene category and obtain possible actual scenarios in the future. Then a successive search algorithm was proposed to solve the model. The proposed method was applied to the dispatching center of Yunnan Electric Power Dispatching Center for generation scheduling between small and large hydropower plants. Based on the practical data simulation, the results show that the proposed method is useful for improving expect peak shaving effect and reliability of hydropower schemes.

关 键 词：小水电 大中型水电 情景分析 调峰 优化调度 

分 类 号：TM79[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]