扩展计划行为理论框架下基于MIMIC模型的城际出行行为分析  

Application of the Expanded Theory of Planned Behavior in Intercity Travel Behavior Based on MIMIC Model

作　　者：景鹏[1,2] 隽志才[1] 查奇芬[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052 [2]江苏大学汽车与交通工程学院,江苏镇江212013 [3]江苏大学财经学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2016年第4期61-68,共8页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373105);教育部人文社会科学研究基金资助项目(11YJC630084);江苏省社会科学基金资助项目(11SHD011)

摘　　要：为了缓解都市圈城际交通走廊不断增加的交通压力,我国近年来实施了很多投入巨大的高铁建设项目,为了更加有效和准确的评估这些项目,就有必要对城际出行行为进行分析。本文基于扩展的计划行为理论框架,通过构造多指标多因果模型,同时从社会经济统计特征和心理因素两个角度分析都市圈城际出行者对普通列车、高铁和长途汽车这三种方式的选择行为。通过实证研究发现,出行者的社会经济统计特征对模型中的一些潜变量有不同程度的显著影响,并且新增加的潜变量"描述性规范"和"行为习惯"对方式选择行为及意向都有显著的直接或间接影响。根据扩展计划行为理论各要素对都市圈城际方式选择行为和意向的影响及相互关系,结合出行者社会经济统计特征的差异,可以有针对性的制定都市圈城际运输供给信息和政策,为都市圈交通系统的优化提供基础的理论支持。最后给出了心理模型在城际出行方式选择行为领域进一步研究的建议。With the development of the district economy and transportation, congestion in intercity corridors of metropolitan areas has been increasing steadily. To alleviate congestion, government agencies proposed many major investment projects, such as the high speed railway projects. To evaluate the adequacy and efficiency of these projects, the intercity travel behavior should be analyzed in metropolitan areas. The literatures related to applications of the theory of planned behavior （TPB） on travel behavior were listed to represent the relationship between the original constructs of TPB. Furthermore, descriptive norm （DN） and habit constructs were introduced into the TPB theory and analyzed in the context of travel behaviors in Section 1. Six proposed hypotheses in the expanded TPB were presented in Section 2. To test the framework and the hypotheses, we paid particular attention to the issues of operationalization andmeasurement in Section 3. In addition, the convergent and discriminant validities of the field data were analyzed to ensure the validity of the model. The model was constructed based on the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes （MIMIC） in order to study travel behaviors, demographic, and psychological factors of travelers using the traditional train, the high speed railway and the coach in Section 4. Through empirical data collection and analysis, we found that demographic factors have positive effect on the latent variables in MIMIC. Moreover, descriptive norm and habit have direct or indirect significant effect on travel behaviors and intention. Conclusion was made in Section 5. On the basis of the effect of psychological constructs of the expanded TPB on the inter-city travel behaviors and traveler＇s demographic characteristics, government agency can make reasonable policies and proper decision to optimize inter-city transportation. The results support the fundamental theory of optimizing the transportation system in metropolitan areas. Academic implications and suggestions for futur

关 键 词：城际出行行为 计划行为理论 MIMIC模型 

分 类 号：U125[交通运输工程]