基于AHP-熵值法的水利工程施工进度风险模糊综合评价  

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Construction Schedule Risk of Water Conservancy Project Based on AHP and Entropy Value Method

作　　者：郭建辉[1] 冯利军[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学城乡建设学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2016年第10期137-140,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：准确评价水利工程施工阶段各个项目施工进度风险并提前做好风险预案,对顺利完成各个施工项目有重要作用。对此,本文分别采用层次分析法(AHP)和信息熵理论计算权重系数,给出了影响水利工程施工进度风险的AHP-熵权组合方法,据此得出风险因素的组合权重,并进行模糊综合评价。以南水北调中线工程渚河北支排水倒虹吸工程为例,获得了该工程的主要风险因素,提出了相应的防治措施,为工程风险防范和进度控制提了依据。It is of great significance for the successful completion of projects to accurately carry out project construction schedule risk analysis and make risk plans in advance.In this paper,analytic hierarchy process（AHP）and information entropy theory were adopted to calculate the weight coefficients,and combination of AHP and entropy weight method was proposed to analyze water conservancy construction schedule risks.Then combined weight of risk factors was obtained and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was performed.Taking the drainage inverted siphon project of Zhuhe River north tributary in Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project as research subject,the major risk factors were obtained and the corresponding control measures were put forward,which provides a basis for engineering risk prevention and schedule control.

关 键 词：层次分析法 熵值法 施工进度风险 模糊综合评价 渚河北支排水倒虹吸 

分 类 号：TV51[水利工程—水利水电工程]