我国税制结构对经济增长的动态影响研究——基于要素供给视角的PVAR模型分析  

Research on the Dynamic Impact of China's Taxation Structure on Economic Growth—Based on PVAR Model from the Perspective of Factor Supply

作　　者：梁红梅[1] 郭晓辉[1] 张卫峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学经济学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第5期161-167,共7页Journal of Lanzhou University（Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71263046)

摘　　要：税制结构是影响经济增长的重要因素之一。在划分劳动收入税、资本收入税和消费支出税的基础上,根据1995-2012年省级面板数据,运用面板向量自回归模型,考察了税制结构变动对经济增长的动态影响,并从要素供给的视角探索了其作用机理。研究结果表明:1)税制结构变动对我国经济增长具有正向促进作用;2)当前劳动收入、资本收入和消费支出有效税率的持续抬升,使税制结构有可能成为经济增长的羁绊。在大力推动"供给侧结构性改革"的背景下,政府应积极调整税制结构,有效降低税收负担,进一步释放要素供给活力,提升经济发展水平。Taxation is one of the important factors affecting economic growth. Using the panel vector autoregressive model and following the categorization of labor income tax, capital income tax, and consumption expenditure tax, this paper has processed provincial panel data collected from 1995 to 2012 in order to investigate the dynamic impact of taxation structure change on economic growth and to explore its mechanism from the perspective of factor supply. The result shows that： 1） the change of taxation structure plays a positive role in China＇s economic growth; 2） the steady increase of the effective tax rate over labor income, capital income and consumption expenditure may turn the taxation structure into the fetter of economic growth. With the promotion of supply-side structural reform in China, the government should actively adjust the structure of taxation system, effectively reduce tax burdens, further release the energy of factor supplies, and improve the level of economic development.

关 键 词：经济增长 税制结构 劳动收入税 资本收入税 消费支出税 要素供给 面板向量自回归 

分 类 号：F810.423[经济管理—财政学]