东北地区人口结构对经济增长的影响  

Factors of Population Structure on Economic Growth in Northeast China

作　　者：于婷婷[1] 宋玉祥[1] 浩飞龙 李秋雨[1] 朱邦耀[1,2] YU Ting - ting SONG Yu - xiang HAO Fei - long LI Qiu - yu ZHU Bang - yao(School of Geographical Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, Jilin , China Department of Tourism and Geography, Jilin Normal University, Siping 136099, Jilin , China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,中国吉林长春130024 [2]吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,中国吉林四平136099

出　　处：《经济地理》2016年第10期26-32,共7页Economic Geography

基　　金：吉林省教育厅社会科学项目(2016173)

摘　　要：首先从人口结构视角,揭示了人口的年龄结构、城乡结构、文化结构、性别结构、产业结构以及失业结构对经济增长的作用机理。再以2003—2014年东北三省34个地级市的面板数据为基础,纳入空间效应后构建空间计量经济学模型,检验了东北地区经济增长的空间依赖性,并估计了人口结构因素对经济增长的影响程度。结果显示:东北地区各地级市之间的经济增长存在明显的正的空间相关性,且这种空间依赖性不断加强;劳动年龄人口、城镇人口以及中专以上学历人口对经济增长具有显著的促进作用;失业人口对东北地区经济增长具有显著的抑制作用。最后,文章从人口扶贫、人口政策调整、人力资本投资、产业结构调整等方面提出了相应的建议。The population structure had changed greatly since the revitalization of the Northeast China, researching how the population structure impact on the economic growth is significant. Firstly, this study analyzes the economic growth in Northeast China influenced by population structure in terms of age, urban- rural duality, culture, sex, industry and unemployment, and the evolving character of population structure is discussed in the meanwhile. After that, based on the panel data in 34 prefecture-level cities of Northeast cities from 2003 to 2014, it builds a spatial econometric model after introducing the spatial effects. By testing the economic growth＇spatial dependency, this paper estimates how much the economic growth is affected by population structure. The result shows： There is an obvious positive correlation among the prefecture-level cities in Northeast China, and the correlation is becoming more and more increased; The workingage population, urban population and secondary or higher education population promote the economic growth obviously.On the contrary, unemployment is a disincentive for the economic growth in Northeast China; finally, this paper provides some related suggestions in terms of population poverty alleviation, population policy adjustment, human capital investment and industrial restructuring.

关 键 词：人口结构 经济增长 空间计量经济模型 东北地区 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]