新常态下湖南省生态经济系统协调发展研究  

On the Coordinated Development of Ecology and Economic System in Hunan Province Under the New Normal Circumstance

作　　者：郭静静[1] 沙海江 吴成亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院 [2]北京市海淀区园林绿化局

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第3期62-68,共7页Journal of Beijing Forestry University ：Social Sciences

摘　　要：基于生态经济协调发展评价指标体系,采用耦合度和协调度模型,首先从省域研究尺度对2005—2014年的湖南省生态环境与经济系统发展水平及二者协调度进行评价,利用GM(1,1)模型进行趋势预测,结果显示湖南省经济发展速度较快,生态环境水平整体上不断提升,二者协调度实现了稳定持续提高。从2015年开始,未来5年,湖南省生态经济协调度发展态势良好,将在"十三五"末步入高度协调发展阶段。在市域研究尺度,对2013年湖南省14市、州生态环境与经济系统的耦合协调发展水平进行空间维度的对比分析,结果显示各市、州的生态环境与经济发展水平以及二者的耦合度和协调度都存在明显的区域差异。在新常态下,发展生态农业,依托城市群经济圈带动区域发展,促进湖南生态经济协调发展,应是未来的发展道路。Based on the evaluation index system of coordinated development between ecology and economics, and employing models of coupling degree and coordination degree, this paper firstly evaluates the development of eco-environment and economic system as well as the coordination degree of them from 2005 to 2014 at the provincial scale, then predicts the future coordination degree between eco- environment and economic development using a GM （ 1,1 ） gray model. The results show that the speed of economic development in Hunan is very high, the eco-environment is rising on the whole, and the coordination degree also achieves a stable and continuous improvement. In the next 5 years, Hunan＇ s coordination degree of ecology and economics will be in a favorable development situation, and it will step into the highly coordinated development stage at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan. At the city scale, the paper spatially analyzes and compares the coupling and coordinated development of eco-environment and economics of Hunan＇ s 14 cities in 2013. The results demonstrate that there are obvious regional differences in ecological environment, economic development, and the coupling and coordination degree of them. Therefore, under the new normal circumstance, developing ecological agriculture and driving regional development by the supports from the economic circle of urban agglomeration would promote the coordinated development in Hunan.

关 键 词：新常态 生态环境系统 经济系统 耦合度 协调度 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]