基于绿洲适度规模的巴州地区适度人口分析  

Analysis of Moderate Population Based on the Suitable Scale of Oasis in Bazhou

作　　者：刘永萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832003

出　　处：《石河子大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第5期76-79,共4页Journal of Shihezi University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"西北干旱区城市综合承载力研究"(14BJY046);兵团社科基金项目"基于资源环境承载力的新疆适度人口规模研究"(12YB36)

摘　　要：绿洲是干旱区人类活动的载体,而水资源又是绿洲的生命线,水资源的多寡直接决定着绿洲规模,进而决定绿洲人口承载能力的大小。该文以巴州地区为研究对象,依据水土热平衡原理,建立绿洲适宜规模和绿洲适度人口测度模型,对巴州地区适度绿洲规模和适度人口进行了实证分析。结果表明:巴州地区实际绿洲规模已经超出适宜绿洲规模21.6%,人工绿洲过度开发已威胁到绿洲内部的稳定结构,绿洲系统已趋于不稳定状态;从绿洲生态系统与绿洲人口发展最佳的耦合状态来看,巴州地区还存在一定的人口承载富裕空间,富裕空间大约在100万人左右。鉴于此,巴州地区应通过加强城镇规划、水资源管理、农业结构调整等措施来进一步优化绿洲空间合理布局,进而提升绿洲资源环境承载能力。The size of the oasis is the carrier of human activity in the arid area, and water resources is the lifeline of oasis.The amount of water resources directly determines the size of oasis, and the decision of the oasis population carrying capacity.The arid region of Northwest China Bazhou Area is taken as the research object, according to the principle of soil heat balance, the establishment of oasis suitable scale and oasis moderate population measure model, of Bazhou Area moderate oasis scale and the moderate population scale of empirical analysis.The results showed that in Bazhou Area actual size of oasis has exceeded 21.6% of the suitable size of oasis, artificial oasis over exploitation has threatened to stable structure inside the oasis, oasis system tends to be unstable state; seeing from the best coupling state of development of the oasis ecological system and the oasis population, in the proper scale of oasis in Chin state area there still exists certain population carrying rich space, rich space about at about 100 million people.In view of this, this paper puts forward a series of countermeasures to optimize the spatial distribution of the oasis in Bazhou area from the aspects of strengthening the urban planning, strengthening the management of water resources, adjusting the agricultural structure and so on.

关 键 词：水土热平衡原理 绿洲适度规模 巴州 适度人口 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]