基于数值模式的环境空气质量预报影响因素和改进方法  

Discussion on the Influence Factors and Improvement Methods of Ambient Air Quality Forecasting Based on Numerical Models

作　　者：王晓彦[1] 赵熠琳[1] 霍晓芹 徐怡珊[1] 汪巍[1] 朱莉莉[1] 晏平仲[2] 李健军[1] WANG Xiaoyan ZHAO Yilin HUO Xiaoqin XU Yishan WANG Wei ZHU Lili YAN Pingzhong LI Jianjun(State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Quality Control in Environmental Monitoring, China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, Beijing 100012, China Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境监测总站,国家环境保护环境监测质量控制重点实验室,北京100012 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《中国环境监测》2016年第5期1-7,共7页Environmental Monitoring in China

基　　金：2014年国家科技支撑计划“基于物联网的区域空气质量预警及决策支撑技术及应用”(2014BAC06B04)

摘　　要：数值预报是各地开展环境空气质量业务预报的主流预报方法之一。模式预报产品、基础输入资料、外部技术支持、主客观预报偏差和预报命中概率等诸多因素均会不同程度地影响数值模式预报效果,研究探讨了上述因素对数值模式预报效果的影响及其针对性的改进方法,以期降低预报偏差,改善业务预报整体效果,为各地提高业务预报质量提供方法思路和技术参考。Numerical forecasting is one of the main methods in ambient air quality forecasting service across China. Several factors such as forecasting model products,basic input data,external technical support,subjective and objective deviation and forecasting hit probability will affect the results of numerical forecasting in varying degrees. This paper discussed the influence of these factors on the results of numerical model forecasting and targeted improvement methods,in order to reduce forecasting deviation and then improve the overall effect and quality of routine forecasting,finally provide technical reference for local cities and regions.

关 键 词：环境空气质量 预报影响因素 改进方法 数值预报 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]