央行外汇干预的短期效应与长期效应  

Short-term and Long-term Effects of Central Bank Foreign Exchange Intervention

作　　者：杜凯祥 

机构地区：[1]安徽大学,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《上海金融学院学报》2016年第4期43-50,共8页Journal of Shanhai Finance University

摘　　要：自从1973年布雷顿森林体系解体以来,世界经济金融一体化加速,汇率波动加剧,为了稳定汇率波动、保证进出口贸易和国际金融交易,各国央行都进入外汇市场买卖外汇以干预汇率。本文研究的对象是我国央行外汇市场的干预行为,在论证中明确了我国央行外汇干预的长期目标和短期目标,运用M—F模型分析了不同程度的跨境资本流动管制下央行冲销干预与非冲销干预的效应,发现无论央行进行冲销干预还是非冲销干预,从长期来看都不影响实际汇率水平,即央行干预在长期是"中性"的,但央行外汇干预在短期内可以影响汇率水平。在充分分析我国央行外汇市场干预效应的基础上提出几点建议。Since the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, the world economic and financial integration accelerated, aggravate the fluctuation of the exchange rate, to ensure that the import and export trade and international financial transactions, central banks enter the foreign exchange market, the sale of foreign exchange to the intervention rate. The research object is the people’s Bank of China foreign exchange market intervention, in the argument clear China’s central bank foreign exchange intervention of long-term and short-term goals, by M - F Model analysis of the effect of varying degrees of cross-border capital flow under the control of the central bank sterilized intervention and non-sterilized intervention, found that whether the central bank sterilized intervention or non-sterilized intervention, in the long run will not affect real exchange rate, which is the central bank intervention in the long-term “neutral” , but the central bank’s foreign exchange intervention can affect the exchange rate in the short term. Based on the analysis of the intervention effect of foreign exchange market in China, some suggestions are put forward.

关 键 词：中央银行 外汇干预 冲销干预 非冲销干预 实际汇率 

分 类 号：F830.92[经济管理—金融学]