基于多状态模型的人口流动家庭化动态研究  

Dynamic Study on Family Migration based on Multi State Model

作　　者：李春平[1] 葛莹玉[2] LI Chun - ping GE Ying - yu(Changzhou Institute of Technology, School of Economics and Management, Chang- zhou 213002, China Jiangsu University of Technology, Business School, Changzhou 213001, China)

机构地区：[1]常州工学院经济与管理学院,江苏常州213002 [2]江苏理工学院商学院,江苏常州213001

出　　处：《人口与发展》2016年第5期24-31,共8页Population and Development

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金项目"新生代农民工人力资本统计测度方法及应用研究"(13CTJ013);江苏省社会科学基金项目"江苏人口素质间接评价研究"(12ZHD006)

摘　　要：人口流动家庭化是当前和未来人口流动的主要特点和趋势,不仅符合家庭的基本需求,也符合新型城镇化的一般规律。利用流出地人口调查资料,从家庭成员流出顺序和流出间隔的视角,运用多状态模型分析人口流动家庭化的动态过程。研究结果表明,研究地区家庭化流动趋势明显,但仍有40%的夫妻处于分居状态,个人、家庭和环境因素对家庭化流动均有影响,其中子女对家庭成员流出有阻碍作用,但对家庭化流出有促进作用。认为对家庭化流动应该给予政策支持,并建立一套以家庭为服务对象的、具有完整生命周期的流动人口管理服务体系。Family migration is the main characteristics and trends in the future population mob-ility. Family migration not only meets the basic needs of the family, but also in line with thegeneral law of social and economic development. This paper studiesily migration of outflow area from the perspective of family member＇flow interval based on multi state model. The results showed that thethe dynamic process of fam-s outflow sequence and out-trend of familymigration inthe study area was obvious,but still 40% of the couples were separated. Individual characteris-tics ,family characteristics and environmental factors had an effect on thefamilymigration. A-mong them, children have a negative effect on individual outflow, but it has a promotion effecton family migration. So the article believes that the family migration should be given policy sup-port. It is necessary to establish a floating family＇ s management and service system with a fulllife cycle.

关 键 词：多状态模型 家庭化流动 动态研究 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]