WRF模式不同参数化方案组合对干旱区一次暴雨模拟的对比分析  

Simulation on a Rainstorm in Arid Region by Different Combinations of Parameterization Schemes of WRF

作　　者：赵舒曼 左洪超[1] 郭阳[1] 董龙翔[1] 朱岩[1] 杨彦龙[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院 [2]中国人民解放军95455部队

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2016年第6期1157-1166,共10页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41275019;41475009;41075006);公益性行业(气象)专项(GYHY201106043)

摘　　要：为了研究不同参数化方案组合对干旱区暴雨模拟的影响,借助新一代中尺度数值模式WRF对2012年7月29日腾格里沙漠边缘一次暴雨过程进行数值模拟研究。选取不同的微物理、积云、陆面过程和边界层参数化方案,得到14种组合;结合同期外场试验观测资料和区域降水实况,对不同组合方案的降水模拟性能进行对比分析。结果表明:不同组合的模拟结果差异显著,选用Thompson、KF、Pleim-Xiu与MYNN 2.5 level参数化方案的组合(case 11)在24 h累计降水、单站逐时降水及降水的TS评分中均表现较好且区域平均误差最小,能够较为真实地模拟出本次暴雨过程。进一步对比不同组合方案模拟物理量变化的差异发现,降水量差异正是模拟物理量差异的客观表现,并对此次暴雨过程发生机制进行了诊断分析。In order to investigate the effects of different combinations of parameterization schemes,a rainstorm occurred in the Tengger Desert on July 29,2012 was simulated by WRF3. 6. This study was carried out with 14 combinations from microphysical,cumulus,land surface and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes. The precipitation patterns simulated by different combinations were compared and analyzed based on the regional precipitation data and observed data in the same period. The results showed that the differences between the results of these combinations were distinct. Case 11,the combination of Thompson,KF,Pleim-Xiu and MYNN 2. 5 level schemes,was the closest one to the observation in terms of 24-hour accumulated precipitation and hourly rainfall of single site,TS score and regional averaged error. Furthermore,a comparison of the changes of diagnostic parameters simulated by these combinations suggested that the differences of precipitation were the expression of the differences of diagnostic parameters between these combinations. Also,the diagnostic parameters simulated by WRF model were adopted to diagnose the causes of the rainstorm.

关 键 词：暴雨 参数化方案 数值模拟 预报评分 干旱区 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458.121.1