气候变化对天山山区高寒盆地水资源变化的影响——以巴音布鲁克盆地为例  

Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Resources in Alpine Basin in the Tianshan Mountains:A Case Study in the Bayanbuluk Basin

作　　者：姚俊强[1] 杨青[1] 韩雪云[2] 刘洋[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2016年第6期1167-1173,共7页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(IDM201506);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC23B01);国家自然科学基金(41375101);国家重点基础研究发展计划"973"项目(2010CB951001)

摘　　要：巴音布鲁克盆地河流的径流演变过程受到气候变化和人类活动的双重影响。利用气候敏感法和水量平衡法,定量分析变化期气候变化对径流的影响。结果表明:巴音布鲁克盆地变化期(1994—2010年)的年径流量比基准期(1960—1993年)增加了27.29%,其中约66.52%是由气候变化引起的。气候变化对径流量影响的主导因素是降水量的变化,降水量变化对巴音布鲁克盆地径流增加的贡献率为62.67%,而受温度升高引起冰川融水量增加对径流量的影响为21.28%,人类活动对地表径流的影响为12.2%,其中还包括盆地土壤水量变化的影响。The Bayanbuluk alpine wetlands are located in an intermontane basin in the central Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang,China. The hydrological cycle in the Bayanbuluk Basin is a complex process affected by climate,geographical features of the basin and human activities. In this study,the data from the Bayanbuluk Basin were analyzed to investigate the changes in annual runoff volume and precipitation during the period of 1960-2010. It was found that the annual runoff volume was in a significant increasing trend,the step change occurred in the year around 1993,and the long-term runoff series was divided into a natural period（ 1960- 1993） and a human-induced period（ 1994- 2010）. The hydrologic sensitivity analysis method and water budget method were employed to evaluate the effects of climate change and human activities on mean annual runoff volume for the humaninduced period based on precipitation and potential evaporation. During the period of 1994- 2010,climate change was the main factor causing the increase of runoff volume with a contribution rate of 66. 52%,while the increasing proportion due to the increase of melt-water and human activities accounted for 21. 28% and 12. 2% respectively.In addition,the change of soil moisture content had an important effect on water resources.

关 键 词：水资源 气候变化 降水量 径流量 天山山区 巴音布鲁克盆地 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P333[天文地球—水文科学]