住宅投资结构对经济增长影响的阶段比较研究——基于动态面板系统GMM模型  

Comparative Study about the Impact of Residential Investment Structure on Economic Growth in the Two Stages——Based on the Panel Date SYS-GMM Model

作　　者：周稳海[1,2] 陈立文[2] 赵桂玲[3] ZHOU Wen-hai CHEN Li-wen ZHAO Gui-ling(School of Economics, Hebei University, Baoding Hebei 071000, China School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China Hebei Finance University, Baoding Hebei 071051, China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071000 [2]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401 [3]河北金融学院,河北保定071051

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2016年第7期103-108,共6页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(14BJY060)

摘　　要：文章选取1999-2013年中国省际面板数据,根据住宅投资结构的数据特征,将研究对象划分为两个阶段,并构建动态面板系统GMM模型,比较分析了在两个不同阶段住宅总投资与房地产投资之比、商品房投资与住宅总投资之比、经济适用房投资与住宅总投资之比、别墅和高档公寓投资与住宅总投资之比对经济增长的影响。研究表明:在这两阶段中,住宅总投资与房地产投资之比、经济适用房投资与住宅总投资之比、别墅和高档公寓投资与住宅总投资之比对经济增长的影响方向均由负向变为正向;而商品房投资与住宅总投资之比对经济增长影响却由正向变为负向。Selecting 1999-2013 provincial panel data of China, this paper classifies the research object into two stages according to characteristics of the residential investment structure data , and establishes a dynamic panel system GMM model to comparative analyze the impact of the total residential investment to the real estate investment, and the commercial housing, affordable housing, villas and luxury apartments investment to the total residential investment ratios on economic growth in two stages. The results showed that in the two stages, the influential directions of the total residential investment to the real estate investment, the affordable housing, villas and luxury apartment investment to the total residential investment ratios on economic growth all change from negative to positive;but the commercial housing investment to total residential investment ratio changes from positive to negative.

关 键 词：住宅投资结构 经济增长 房地产经济 产业结构 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]