区域产业结构演变对PM2.5排放的影响机理研究  

Research on the Influence Mechanism of Regional Industrial Structure Evolution to PM2.5 Emissions

作　　者：齐园[1,2] 张永安[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济管理学院,北京100122 [2]北方工业大学土木工程学院,北京100144

出　　处：《软科学》2016年第11期54-60,共7页Soft Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(15YJC630101);北京市教委社会科学计划面上项目(SM201510009002)

摘　　要：以北京为样本,基于三次产业PM2.5排放数据的研究,对不同层次不同类型结构演变的影响机理进行实证分析。结果表明,区域产业结构演变的减排效应来源于三条路径:调整高能耗部门的直接减排效应;高技术化的工业结构升级产生的间接技术减排效应;以中高技术产业规模增长促使经济增长与PM2.5排放脱钩,产生的规模减排效应。基于样本三种情景下的工业结构演变效应,提出工业化进程中工业结构与PM2.5排放演变的三阶段模型。Based on the date from Beijing and the research of three industries PM2.5 emissions data, this paper empirically analyzes the influential Mechanism in the different levels and the different types of structural evolution. Results show that the reduction effect of regional industrial structure evolution is from three paths. The first is adjusting the direct reduction effect of the high energy consuming sectors. Second, high technicalization of industrial structure upgrading encouraged secondary industry to decrease the emissions intensity to produce indirect technical effect. Third, by economic growth of high-teeh in- dustry keeping ＂321＂ the proportion of industrial structure, economic growth from PM2.5 emissions decoupled so that pro- duced the indirect scale reduction effect. At the same time, based on sample empirical result of the three scenarios of indus- trial structure evolution effect, it puts forward three stages evolution model of the industrial structure and the PM2.5 emis- sions in the process of industrialization.

关 键 词：产业结构演变 PM2.5排放 因素分解模型 通径分析 影响机理 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F124.5