三峡库区生态安全后续发展胁迫因子及胁迫机理研究  

Stress Factorsand Stress Mechanism on Subsequent Development of Ecological Security in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

作　　者：刘慧敏[1] 官冬杰[1] 张梦婕[1] LIU Huimin GUAN Dongjie ZHANG Mengjie(College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074 Chin)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学建筑与城市规划学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第3期150-158,共9页Journal of Guangxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41201546;41261038);重庆市自然科学基金资助项目(cstc2012jjA20010);国家十二五科技支撑计划专题(2011BAC02B02);国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ25B09);贵州省重大科技专项(黔科合重大专项字〔2012〕6015号);国家重大科技水环境污染与控制治理专项(2009ZX07528-003;2012ZX07503-002)

摘　　要：人类在影响地球的同时,因人类活动引起的全球变化成为了国际上热点研究内容,由此引发的生态安全问题也引起各界学者的高度重视,而三峡库区作为一个重点研究课题,其生态安全也受到了极大的关注。本文以重庆三峡库区为研究对象,在对其生态安全进行综合评价的基础上,找出三峡库区生态安全后续发展的瓶颈及存在的问题,并从自然、社会、经济3个方面确定其胁迫因子。以Vensim软件为基础平台,建立三峡库区生态安全后续发展的系统动力学模型,在模型检验通过后,对三峡库区生态安全的后续发展进行动态模拟。基于胁迫因子的反馈关系和模拟结果,分析三峡库区生态安全后续发展的胁迫机理,从而为进行三峡库区生态安全后续发展的预警评价奠定基础。Abstract： The global change caused by human activities has become a hot research issue in the world, at the same time, the ecological security problems caused by human activities have attracted great attention from scholars of all circles. As a key research focus, great concerns have also been showed to the ecological security of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on the comprehensive evaluation of ecological security in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the follow-up development bottleneck of ecological security of the Three Gorges Reservoir area and the existing problems are analyzed to determine the stress factor from three aspects of nature, society and economy. A system dynamic model was established based on the Vensim software platform for the subsequent development of ecological safety of the Three Gorges Reservoir. After the model test, a dynamic simulation on future development of the ecological safety of the Three Gorges reservoir is carried out. Based on the feedback relationship and simulation results, the stress mechanism of subsequent development of ecological security of the Three Gorges Reservoir area are analyzed, which will lay a foundation for subsequent development evaluation and early warning of ecological security of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

关 键 词：三峡库区 主成分分析 胁迫因子 系统动力学 胁迫机理 

分 类 号：TP274[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]