Application of the nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm for forecasting surface wind of point station in the South China Sea with scatterometer observations  

作　　者：钟剑 董钢 孙一妹 张钊扬 吴玉琴 

机构地区：[1]China Satellite Maritime Tracking and Control Department, Jiangyin 214431, China

出　　处：《Chinese Physics B》2016年第11期167-173,共7页中国物理B（英文版）

基　　金：Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41230421 and 41605075);the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430101)

摘　　要：The present work reports the development of nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm（GA） with singular spectrum analysis（SSA） for forecasting the surface wind of a point station in the South China Sea（SCS） with scatterometer observations.Before the nonlinear technique GA is used for forecasting the time series of surface wind,the SSA is applied to reduce the noise.The surface wind speed and surface wind components from scatterometer observations at three locations in the SCS have been used to develop and test the technique.The predictions have been compared with persistence forecasts in terms of root mean square error.The predicted surface wind with GA and SSA made up to four days（longer for some point station） in advance have been found to be significantly superior to those made by persistence model.This method can serve as a cost-effective alternate prediction technique for forecasting surface wind of a point station in the SCS basin.The present work reports the development of nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm（GA） with singular spectrum analysis（SSA） for forecasting the surface wind of a point station in the South China Sea（SCS） with scatterometer observations.Before the nonlinear technique GA is used for forecasting the time series of surface wind,the SSA is applied to reduce the noise.The surface wind speed and surface wind components from scatterometer observations at three locations in the SCS have been used to develop and test the technique.The predictions have been compared with persistence forecasts in terms of root mean square error.The predicted surface wind with GA and SSA made up to four days（longer for some point station） in advance have been found to be significantly superior to those made by persistence model.This method can serve as a cost-effective alternate prediction technique for forecasting surface wind of a point station in the SCS basin.

关 键 词：forecasting persistence alternate ocean meridional winds scatter reconstructed longer zonal 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学] TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]