强度尺度分解方法在气候温度场检验中的应用  

Application of the Intensity-Scale Technique for Verification of Climatological Surface Temperature Simulation

作　　者：李娟[1,2] 曾晓东[1,2,3] 陈红[1] 蔡其发[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044

出　　处：《大气科学》2016年第6期1117-1126,共10页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA05110103~~

摘　　要：本文首次将Casati等提出的强度尺度分解方法应用到气候地表温度场的检验中,探讨此方法用于评估气候模拟场误差的详细空间信息的适用性。以新一代气候系统模式模拟的月平均地表温度为例,传统的统计分析方法(较为常用的是空间相关系数和均方根误差、EOF分析等)不能完全反映模拟场误差的空间信息;强度尺度分解方法可计算不同阈值和空间尺度上的均方误差和模拟技巧,评估对应的模拟能力,定量给出模拟场主要误差的空间信息(误差范围即温度阈值及对应的空间尺度),例如,亚洲东部地区1月单年及多年平均的模拟场在230 K阈值1600 km模拟技巧非常低。本研究表明强度尺度分解方法适用于气候温度场的检验评估,能定量给出误差的空间信息。The applicability of the intensity-scale approach for the verification of climate simulation is investigated in this paper. The monthly mean surface temperature simulated by a new generation of climate system model is taken as an example. While the traditional statistical verification cannot fully reflect the spatial information of the simulation error, the intensity-scale approach can quantitatively assess the spatial information of the simulation by calculating the mean square errors and skill scores of the spatial components with different wavelet scales and intensities. For example, in East Asia, the skill score of temperature threshold 230 K and spatial scale 1600 km is very low for simulations of both January of single year and multi-year average. This study shows that the intensity-scale approach is suitable for the verification of climatological temperature simulation, and can provide quantitative spatial information of the error.

关 键 词：强度尺度分解方法 空间检验 地表气温 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]