基于位涡反演的台风初值敏感性试验  

NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE SENSITIVITY OF TC DEVELOPMENT TO INITIAL CONDITION

作　　者：陈宇 徐驰 曹世腾 黄海亮 金雪 杨雪 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象灾害监测预警中心,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2016年第5期686-696,共11页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：辽宁省气象局课题<不同类别强对流天气的探空T-logP图分析技术>(201407);环勃海区域科技协同创新基金项目<北上影响黄渤海台风监测及降水分布研究>(QYXM201501)共同资助

摘　　要：基于分片位涡反演方法,对2013年7号台风Soulik开展初始涡旋、背景环流对台风发展影响的个例研究。针对不同天气系统进行分片位涡反演,基于反演结果设计敏感性试验,确定影响台风发展的敏感初始物理量扰动,分析讨论与特定物理过程联系的扰动分量以及扰动大小对台风发展的影响。敏感性试验的结果表明,初始弱涡旋扰动中与潜热加热联系的风场扰动分量是决定台风发生发展的关键要素扰动,这一扰动分量的大小对台风路径有直接影响,同时能够直接影响台风云墙的建立,它的重要性表明第二类条件性不稳定(CISK)机制在此次台风过程中扮演了重要角色。On the basis of PV theory and PV inversion, the sensitivity of Typhoon Soulik （2013） to initial vortex and background flow pattern is discussed. The significant component of initial condition and its associated dynamic process related to the TC development are specifically investigated based on piecewise PV inversion. It reveals that the wind perturbations associated with convective latent heat determine the TC motion and the eyewall structure. This component of wind perturbation from initial vortex generates a positive vorticity anomaly and enhances the lower convergence, which is in favor of triggering convection. This portion of wind perturbation al- so benefits the organization of latent heat and further intensification of cyclonic circulation. This implies that the CISK mechanism is important to cyelogenesis.

关 键 词：台风 位涡反演 敏感性试验 CISK 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]