中国农业保险发展的空间收敛研究  

Analysis of the convergence of agricultural insurance coverage in China

作　　者：黄琦[1] 陶建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院/湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2016年第6期1151-1157,共7页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173086)~~

摘　　要：中国农业保险发展存在明显的区域差异,弱化对农业发展的支持保护作用,加大区域农业经济发展差异,在农业保险换挡期,应聚焦于农业保险的区域差异问题。基于中国农业保险发展遵循收敛性理论假设,运用空间计量的分析方法,构建空间Moran模型,利用2004-2013年农业保险统计数据,分析农业保险密度空间收敛性,探讨农业保险发展的空间收敛性。结果表明,农业保险密度Gini系数最小值为2013年(0.459),农业保险发展区域差异显著,"二元结构"特征明显;农业保险发展区域间相互作用明显,具有相同资源禀赋且空间位置邻近的省份,农业保险密度区域集聚性较强;空间滞后模型是最适合研究农业保险空间收敛的模型,中国农业保险发展符合收敛性理论假设被证实,先发地区农业保险密度增长率低于后发地区农业保险密度增长率,收敛速度为0.941,区域农业保险发展将向一个共同的稳态收敛;中国农业保险发展在空间上聚集特征显著,区域农业保险收敛发展源于空间溢出效应。因此,制定区域农业保险政策以及设计区域性农业保险产品,将有助于缩小农业保险区域发展差异,促进区域农业保险均衡发展。The development of China＇s agricultural insurance has significant regional difference, which has weakened its effect of supporting agricultural development and widened the regional agricultural economy development. During the transitional period of agricultural insurance, regional difference of agricultural insurance development should be paid more attention to. Based on the statistics data of agricultural insurance density of China from 2004 to 2013 and the assumption of convergence in the development of agricultural insurance, this paper built an spatial Moran model to analyze the spatial convergence of China＇s agricultural insurance density and to explore the path for the development of agricultural insurance in China. Results show that 1） the lowest Gini coefficient about agricultural insurance density is 0.459 in 2013, with significant regional difference and dualistic structure of the development of China＇s agricultural insurance; 2） agricultural insurance development in one region significantly affects that in other regions with similar resource endowment and spatial proximity of regions, showing a clustering characteristics; 3） spatial lag model might be the most suitable model to study agricultural insurance spatial convergence; 4） the convergence theory in the development of Chinese agricultural insurance has been confirmed; and 5） the growth rate of agricultural insurance density in areas where agricultural insurance developed earlier is lower than that in areas where agricultural insurance was introduced later, with convergence speed of 0.941, indicating that the development of regional agricultural insurance converges to a common steady state. Therefore making regional agricultural insurance policy and designing regional agricultural insurance products would help to narrow down the regional difference of agricultural insurance development and promote a balanced development of regional agriculture insurance.

关 键 词：农业保险密度 空间计量经济模型 收敛性理论 区域农业保险政策 

分 类 号：F840.66[经济管理—保险]