面向应急管理的仿真模型构建过程评述  

A Review of Construction of Simulation Modeling Oriented to Emergency Management

作　　者：李纲[1] 柳明飞 叶光辉[1] Li Gang Liu Mingfei Ye Guanghui(Center for the Studies of Information Resources of Wuhan University, Wuhan 43007)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学信息资源研究中心,武汉430072

出　　处：《信息资源管理学报》2016年第4期65-73,共9页Journal of Information Resources Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"智慧城市应急决策情报体系建设研究"(13&ZD173)的成果之一

摘　　要：模拟仿真分析是描述、解释突发事件形成机理,提升人类应对突发事件决策能力的重要方法。为政府及相关部门仿真分析提供可实施的模式,本文从概念设计、系统设计和应用设计三个层面,依次综述了面向突发事件的仿真模型构建过程。概念设计说明了情景从描述、构建到演化的整个过程;系统设计对比了现有的仿真分析方法与平台,描述了仿真建模与评估过程;应用设计分别论述仿真模型在三类突发事件中的应用状况。最后指出当前仿真分析过程中存在的挑战。The simulation analysis describes and explains the formation mechanism of emergent events, thus serving as a crucial tool to enhance the decision making capacity of human being when facing emergent events. To provide feasible patterns of simulation analysis for the government and relevant sectors, this pa- per successively reviews on the construction process of simulation modeling oriented to emergent events from the perspective of conception design, system design and application design. Conception design features the process of scenario description, construction and evolution. System design illustrates the process of simula- tion modeling and assessment through the comparison of present simulation methods and platforms. Applica- tion design reviews the current situation of simulation models applied in three kinds of emergent events. The challenges existing in current simulation analysis are lastly pointed out.

关 键 词：突发事件 应急管理 仿真模型 

分 类 号：G250[文化科学—图书馆学]