中国粮食主产区农业现代化效益水平的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of Level of Agricultural Modernization Effectiveness in Major Grain Producing Areas of China

作　　者：牛凯[1] 胡亮[1] 曹艳[1] NIU Kai HU Liang CAO Yan(Institute of Agricultural Information and Rural Economy, Siehuan Academy of Agrieuhural Sciences, Chengdu 610066, China)

机构地区：[1]四川省农业科学院农业信息与农村经济研究所,四川成都610066

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2016年第11期108-116,共9页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

摘　　要：为了客观地分析我国粮食主产区农业现代化发展水平及其区域差异,对比分析国内的最新研究成果,采用主成分分析法与Hodrick-Prescott滤波相结合的形式进行实证研究,对我国粮食主产区改革开放37年（1978^2014年）来农业现代化效益水平做出客观的评价。研究表明：狭义农业现代化效益水平总体上要高于广义农业现代化效益水平,这与实际情况相符;各粮食主产区农业现代化效益水平总体上呈现上升的趋势;各粮食主产区农业现代化效益水平的排序呈现动态的变化,且地区差异逐渐缩小;在改革开放初期、中期和后期,各粮食主产区的农业现代化效益水平分别呈现上升、调整、再上升的趋势。为了进一步促进我国粮食主产区农业现代化进程,应不断提高农业资源的利用效率,转变农业的生产经营方式,加快农业科技成果的转化。In order to objectively analyze the developmental levels of agricultural modernization in major grain producing areas of China and their regional differences,by comparing with the latest domestic research results,we used principal component analysis combined with Hodrick-Prescott filtering to conduct an empirical study and make an objective evaluation of the levels of agricultural modernization effectiveness in major grain producing areas of China since the reform and opening-up（ 1978 ~ 2014）.The research showed that the level of agricultural modernization effectiveness in a narrow sense was generally higher than that in a broad sense,which was consistent with the actual situation; the levels of agricultural modernization effectiveness in all major grain producing areas generally revealed a rising trend; the ranking of the levels of agricultural modernization effectiveness in different major grain producing areas changed dynamically,and their regional differences were shrunk gradually; in the earlier,middle and later periods of the reform and opening-up,the levels of agricultural modernization effectiveness in all major grain producing areas showed a rising,adjusting,and rising trend,respectively. In order to further promote the progress of agricultural modernization in China＇s major grain producing areas,we should continuously improve the efficiency of utilizing agricultural resources,transform the production and management patterns of agriculture,and expedite the conversion of agricultural scientific and technological achievements.

关 键 词：粮食主产区 农业现代化 效益水平 区域差异 主成分分析 Hodrick-Prescott滤波 

分 类 号：F320.1[经济管理—产业经济]