美国生物燃料价格与农作物价格内生性及其互动影响  

Empirical study on endogeneity and interactions between biofuel price and crop price in the USA

作　　者：杜婧[1] 王磊[2] 顾蕾[2] 张立中[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,浙江临安311300

出　　处：《浙江农林大学学报》2016年第6期1073-1077,共5页Journal of Zhejiang A&F University

基　　金：中国农民发展研究中心资助项目

摘　　要：生物燃料的发展一直是国内外热议话题。从价格视角讨论了燃料乙醇和玉米Zea mays市场间的相互关联程度及互动影响,基于此分析现阶段国际上生物燃料发展是否仍会对粮食安全产生严重威胁。以美国为例,利用2006-2015年共38季度时间序列数据,综合社会、经济、政策等因素构建了玉米价格和燃料乙醇价格间的联立方程组,分析了各自的影响因素以及2个价格间双向、不对称的相互作用关系。得出:影响玉米价格的主要因素依次为政策、玉米产量、美元价格指数和燃料乙醇价格;影响燃料乙醇价格的主要因素依次是汽油价格、居民收入和玉米价格,玉米价格和燃料乙醇价格间存在正向的相互影响,作用力相对较弱。能源用途和食物用途对农产品的争夺并不是造成农作物价格上涨的主要推动力,价格上涨的推动力更多来自于其他外生变量变化所导致的供给、需求不平衡。Biofuel has been a hot research topic. This study aimed to evaluate whether large-scale production of biofuel would pose a threat to food security by analyzing the correlations and interactions between biofuel and corn market. The Untited States of America, the largest biofuel-producing country was exemplified to analyze the two-way and asymmetrical interactions between the price of corn and that of fuel ethanol by building simul-taneous equation models between them with 38 quarterly time-series data collected from 2006 to 2015. The as-sociation degree between energy security and food security from the view of price by comprehensively analyzing social, economic, policy and other factors were studied. The main determinant of the corn price was policy, fol-lowed by yield, dollar index and ethanol price, while the determinants of fuel ethanol price included gasoline price, income and corn price. It was concluded that there was positive but fairly weak relationship between prices of fuel ethanol and corn, indicating that the competition for the limited supply of crops between food and energy sectors was not the main reason for the sharp rise in food prices. （Ch, 3 tab. 15 ref.]

关 键 词：农业经济学 生物质能源价 农作物价格 联立方程 美国 

分 类 号：S-98[农业科学] F316[经济管理—产业经济]