广州市灰霾致肺癌的因果性分析  

Causality Analysis from Grey Haze to Lung Cancer in Guangzhou

作　　者：刘晓雪[1] 胡三清[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学计算机学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《杭州电子科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第6期21-24,共4页Journal of Hangzhou Dianzi University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然基金资助项目(61473110);浙江省自然科学基金重点资助项目(LZ13F030002)

摘　　要：以广州市为例,研究了灰霾与肺癌的因果性问题,并进一步确定了肺癌的死亡率与灰霾的滞后关系.首先,构建灰霾与肺癌死亡率的线性回归模型;然后,通过计算两个变量之间的格兰杰因果关系值以及新型因果关系值确定两变量是否存在因果关系,再对所求得的因果关系值进行显著性检验;最后,计算不同滞后项的值大小,通过比较不同滞后项所占的比例大小来确定肺癌与灰霾之间的滞后关系.该回归模型的建立与因果关系分析方法的应用证实了灰霾是导致肺癌的死亡率上升的一个重要原因,平均而言肺癌死亡率与灰霾存在8年的因果滞后关系.This paper studies causal relationship from grey haze to lung cancer and further identifies the lag relationship between two variables in Guangzhou city.Firstly,establishing a linear regression model of grey haze and lung cancer mortality;secondly calculating Granger causality value and new causality value between two variables to confirm whether there is causality between them.Thirdly,taking significance test for the two causality values to further verify the causality values are of significance.Finally,calculating different lag part values and comparing the proportion of different lag part takes to confirm the lag relationship between lung cancer mortality and grey haze.With the constructing of linear regression model and the application of causality analysis methods,we can draw a conclusion that grey haze is a causal cause of the rising trend of lung cancer mortality and on average lung cancer mortality and aerosol particles has 8years lag relationship.

关 键 词：新型因果关系 格兰杰因果关系 肺癌 灰霾 大气污染 

分 类 号：X-4[环境科学与工程]