中国与“一带一路”沿线国家农产品贸易潜力分析——基于HM指数及随机前沿引力模型  

An Analysis of Agricultural Trade Potential between China and “One Belt and One Road ” Line Countries——Based on HM Index and Random Frontier Gravity Model

作　　者：李浩学[1] 李盛辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广东广州510642

出　　处：《价格月刊》2016年第11期69-74,共6页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"农业企业社会责任:动机;行为与路径选择"(编号:71273095);国家社会科学基金项目:"农业企业食品安全行为研究"(编号:10BGL007)

摘　　要：通过HM指数分析中国与＂一带一路＂沿线国家农产品贸易依赖程度,发现两者农产品贸易仍有较大提升空间。运用随机前沿引力模型探讨了2005年～2014年中国与30个沿线国家农产品贸易潜力及其影响因素。结果表明：人口总量、人均GDP都与农产品贸易潜力呈显著正向相关,而地理距离与农产品贸易潜力呈显著负向相关;自贸协定、航运条件及运输设备是农产品贸易发展的有利因素,而关税程度、结关时间和投资开放度则是农产品贸易发展的阻碍因素。最后提出促进农产品贸易发展的对策。By analyzing the agricultural products trade dependency between China and the ＂One Belt and One Road＂line countries, this article finds that the agricultural trade still has larger room for improvement. This article uses random frontier gravity model to discuss the agricultural trade potential and impacting factor between China and 30 line countries within2005-2014. The result shows： total population, average GDP both exhibit significant positive correlation with agricultural trade potential, while the geography distance and agricultural trade potential show significant negative correlation; FTA, shipping terms and transportation equipment are the beneficial factors for the development of agricultural trade, but tariff degree,clearance time and investment opening degree are the obstructive factors against the development of agricultural trade, and finally puts forward the countermeasures to improve agricultural trade development.

关 键 词：一带一路 农产品 贸易潜力 HM指数 随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F752.65[经济管理—国际贸易]