移动平均法的趋势季节模型在开展株洲市手足口病预测中的应用  

Application of seasonal trend model based on moving average method in forecasting hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhuzhou City

作　　者：张金艳[1] 熊新平[1] 

机构地区：[1]株洲市疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防治科,湖南株洲412000

出　　处：《职业与健康》2016年第19期2672-2674,共3页Occupation and Health

摘　　要：目的应用移动平均法的趋势季节模型预测株洲市手足口病发病趋势,为预警、早期防控手足口病流行提供依据。方法利用Excel 2003对株洲市2011—2015年手足口病以周为时间序列拟合方程建立预测模型,并对2016年发病趋势进行预测。结果移动平均法趋势季节模型可预测手足口病整体发病趋势和季节特征;2016年株洲市手足口病疫情仍将呈上升趋势,手足口病高发时间在第15~29周（4—7月）和第38~41周（9至10月）,发病高峰分别在第23周（6月初）和第39周（9月底）。结论结合移动平均法趋势季节模型的预测结果,可早期发现手足口病暴发的苗头,及时采取措施有效控制疫情规模。[Objective]To forecast hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD）in Zhuzhou City by seasonal trend model based on moving average method,provide the evidence for early warning,prevention and control of HFMD at an early stage.[Methods]On the basis of HFMD data in Zhuzhou City from 2011-2015,the prediction model was established in weekly time series,and the epidemic trend in 2016 was forecasted.[Results]The seasonal trend model based on moving average method could predict the overall epidemic trend and seasonal characteristics of HFMD. The epidemic trend of HFMD would show a rising trend in Zhuzhou City in2016. The incidence rate would be higher in the 15 th-29th（April to July）week and the 38th-4st week（September to October）,and the peaks would appear in the 23 rd week（early June）and 39 th week（end of September）.[Conclusion]The forecast results of seasonal trend model based on moving average method is helpful to early detect the signs of HFMD outbreak,so as to take measures to control the epidemic scale.

关 键 词：移动平均法 趋势季节模型 手足口病 预测预警 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]