岷江上游干旱河谷区退耕还林还草的社会经济影响  

Impacts of Cultivated Land Conversion on Social-Economic Changes in Arid Valley from the Upper Reaches of Min River

作　　者：李富程[1] 刘影[1] 樊敏[1] 赵丽[1] 王青[1] 翟真[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南科技大学环境与资源学院,四川绵阳621010

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》2016年第6期295-301,共7页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：四川省科技支撑计划项目(2014SZ0058;2012SZZ032);国家自然科学基金(41401301);国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAC05B05)

摘　　要：利用遥感资料和GIS技术,研究1999-2009年岷江上游干旱河谷区聚落生态位内部耕地、林地和草地变化动态,基于主成分分析法,建立退耕还林（草）的社会经济影响指数,评估1999年以来岷江上游退耕还林（草）的社会经济影响。1999-2009年聚落生态位内部耕地减少38.44%,而草地增长70.30%,林地增长53.20%;不同海拔耕地面积均呈不同程度的减少,海拔2 001-3 000m退耕较多,占退耕总量的85%;不同坡度的耕地面积均呈减小趋势,耕地减少量随坡度增大而增加;1999-2014年岷江上游退耕还林还草的社会经济影响指数介于-0.70-1.48,整体呈先下降后上升趋势。岷江上游退耕还林还草的社会经济影响日益凸显,对当地的社会稳定和经济发展具有促进作用。岷江上游聚落区具有低阈值粮食流通,高风险粮食危机的显著特征,耕地过度非农化将制约退耕还林还草社会经济效益的持续稳定增长,新一轮退耕还林应警惕耕地过度非农化潜在的粮食安全风险。Based on remote sensing data and Geographic Information System （GIS）,the dynamic changes of farmland ,woodland and grassland of settlement niche were analyzed for dry valley in the upper reaches of Min River from 1999 to 2009. Then,social economic benefits of cultivated land conversion were assessed by the principal component analysis （PCA） method. The farmland areas decreased by 38. 44%, while the grassland and forest area in the settlement niche increased by 70. 30% and 53.43% from 1999 to 2009,respectively. Farmland areas in different elevations decreased in various degrees and a high reduction occurred at altitudes of 2 001-3 000 m with an 85% reduction. Farmland areas in different slope gradients showed a decreasing trend,and the decrement of farmland increased with the increase of slope gradient. Social economic benefits index （SEBI） of cultivated land conversion ranged from -0.70 to 1.48 in the upper reaches of Min River during 1999- 2014, which first increased then decreased with the passage of time on the whole. Social economic benefits of cultivated land conversion have become increasingly prominent, which can evidently promote local economic development and social stability. The settlement niches have salient features of low threshold of grain circulation and high-risk food crisis in the Upper Reaches of Min River, therefore, excessive cultivated land conversion will constrain sustained and stable growth of social economic benefits of Grain for Green Project （GFGP）. The new round of GFGP should be aware of the risk of cultivated land conversion for food security in the upper reaches of Min River.

关 键 词：退耕还林 耕地非农化 聚落 生态位 社会经济效益 岷江上游 

分 类 号：S79[农业科学—林木遗传育种]