基于偏离-份额分析法的山东省资源型城市产业结构研究  

Research on the Industrial Structure Optimization of Resource-Based Cities in Shandong Province Based on Shift-Share-Method

作　　者：郭庆[1] 邓凯文[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学经济学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2016年第6期148-154,共7页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学青年基金项目“碳排放约束下我国能源效率的区域差异及节能指标分解研究”(项目编号:12cj1066);山东省社会科学规化研究项目“临港产业集群形成机制及发展路径研究-以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区临港产业发展为例”(项目编号:12CJJJ09);山东省研究生教育创新计划项目“经管类全日制专业硕士实践教学体系构建”(项目编号:sdyy13106);山东财经大学教研教改项目“基于微课的经济学教学模式改革研究”的阶段性成果

摘　　要：运用偏离—份额分析法,采用2005年到2014年面板数据,分析了山东省资源未枯竭城市—东营、泰安、莱芜、济宁的产业结构与经济增长间动态关系。认为四个城市的经济增长主要依靠全省增长份额和产业结构转移份额,而区域竞争力份额贡献较少;山东省经济增长对四个城市经济的带动作用由高至低依次为东营、济宁、泰安、莱芜,全省经济增长波动对莱芜的影响最小;济宁和泰安第三产业对经济有较大推动作用,东营经济增长主要依靠第二产业,第二、第三产业共同推动了莱芜经济增长。最后针对四个城市的产业结构特点,提出了产业结构调整的对策建议。The paper uses the SSM method and the panel data from 2005 to 2014 to comprehensively analyze the dynamic relationship between industrial structure and economic growth of cities where resources have not yet exhausted, such as Dongying, Taian, Laiwu and Jining in Shandong Province. The analysis restrlts show that the economic growth of the four cities mainly depends on the national share（NI） and the industry mix（IM） while the regional share（RS） has a few contribution. Among the four cities, the economic growth of the whole Shandong Province promotes that of Dongying most, which is followed by Jining, Taian, Laiwu in order. Moreover, Laiwu is least affected by the province＇s economic growth fluctuations. Jining and Taian＇s tertiary industries have a greater role in promoting the economy; Dongying＇s economic growth mainly depends on secondary industry. Tertiary industry and secondary industry together lead to Laiwu＇s economic development. According to the characteristics of the industrial structure of the four cities, this paper puts forward and suggestions to adjust industrial structure.

关 键 词：资源未枯竭城市 偏离一份额分析 产业结构 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]