山东省劳动力供需预测、存在问题及对策研究  

Forecast of Labor Supply and Demand,Problems and Countermeasures in Shandong Province

作　　者：王承强[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东社会科学院人口学研究所,山东济南250002

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2016年第6期155-160,F0003,共7页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目"山东省产业转型升级与人才发展互动关系研究"(项目编号:14CRKJ02)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：劳动力是经济发展中极其重要的因素,研究其供给与需求对于经济健康发展具有指导引领作用。山东省是中国的缩影,研究山东省劳动力供需问题对于预判我国国情有特殊意义。利用年龄移算模型、回归模型、就业弹性等方法预测山东省劳动力供求变化。预测结果显示:山东省劳动力供需发生了颠覆性的变化,并且供需之间的缺口越来越大,学历供需结构失衡问题更趋于明显。文章在分析山东省劳动力供需存在问题的基础上,提出了促进经济稳定健康发展以及劳动力就业的具体对策和建议。The labor force is the most important factor in economic development and the research on the supply and demand of it has guiding role in the healthy development of economy. Shandong province is a microcosm of China, so a study of the problem of labor sup- ply and demand in Shandong province is of special significance to predict the situation of the whole country. The age shift calculatin~ model, regression model and employment elasticity method are used to forecast the labor supply and demand changes in Shandong prov- ince. Prediction results show that： the labor supply and demand take place disruptive changes, the gap between supply and demand is increasing, and education supply and demand imbalance in the structure tends to be more obvious. Based on the problem analysis of la- bor supply and demand, the article proposes specific countermeasures and suggestions to promote healthy and stable economic develop- ment and employment.

关 键 词：劳动力供需 人口预测 就业弹性 供需矛盾 

分 类 号：F241.21[经济管理—劳动经济]