基于粮食安全的河南省耕地压力动态分析及预测  

Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Cultivated Land Pressure in Henan Province Based on Food Security

作　　者：宋香平 马守臣[1] 张合兵[1] 秦伟霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学测绘与国土信息工程学院,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2016年第33期162-168,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会与神华集团有限责任公司联合资助项目(U1261206);国家自然基金项目(41541014);河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(14A180012);"

摘　　要：为了明确阐述河南省的耕地压力状况和粮食供给情况,依据统计数据,分析了1978—2012年河南省耕地、人口、粮食产量等的动态变化,计算了耕地压力指数和土地资源承载力指数,最后应用灰色马尔科夫模型对2013—2022年的耕地压力指数进行了预测。结果表明:1978年以来,耕地总量和人均耕地面积不断减少,但由于耕地生产率的提高,粮食总产量和人均粮食产量却逐渐增加,从而耕地压力指数和土地资源承载力指数呈波浪式递减趋势。通过预测,2013—2022年河南省的耕地压力指数持续缓慢减小。可见,农业科技水平以及复种指数的不断提高能够减轻耕地压力,保障区域粮食安全。To elaborate the cultivated land pressure and food supply situation, based on statistical data, theauthors analyzed dynamic changes of cropland, population and grain yield from 1978 to 2012 in HenanProvince, cultivated land pressure index and land source carrying capacity index were calculated, thecultivated land pressure index of 2013 to 2022 was predicted by grey Markov model. The results showed thatsince 1978, although total cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area decreased, total grain yieldand per capita yield steadily increased due to the increase of cultivated land productivity, thus cultivated landpressure index and land source carrying capacity index showed wave declining trends. The predicting resultsshowed that cultivated land pressure index would continue to decline slowly from 2013 to 2022. In conclusion,the increase of agricultural technology level and the multiple cropping index could alleviate cultivated landpressure and ensure regional food security.

关 键 词：粮食安全 耕地压力指数 土地资源承载力 河南省 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]