竞争驱动、政策干预与产能扩张——兼论“潮涌现象”的微观机制  

Competition-driven,Government Intervention and Capacity Expansion: Discussion on the Micro-mechanism of“Wave Movement Phenomenon”

作　　者：白让让[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院,200433

出　　处：《经济研究》2016年第11期56-69,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号71372114);教育部人文社科一般项目(12YJA630003)的资助

摘　　要：中国经济正面临多个产业的总量或结构性产能过剩的巨大压力,这一现象不能完全归因于经济的周期波动和扩张性货币、财政政策,还需从企业产能投资行为的竞争战略和产业政策的视角予以分析。本文以2000—2013年我国乘用车制造行业的微观数据为基础,对三十多家企业产能扩张的战略性动因进行了实证研究。研究发现:企业的新增投资与竞争者的扩张行为正相关,即存在"潮涌现象"或攀比效应;行业产能利用率、需求增长率与新增投资决策之间没有十分确定的关系;政府对汽车行业的投资限制和管制,只在一定期间获得了预期的目标。基于Probit模型的计量检验在支持"潮涌现象"的同时,并未发现在位者通过对产能利用率的扭曲,以维持市场份额和限制进入的确切证据。对合资和自主品牌制造企业产能扩张行为的边际效应检验则发现,影响这两类企业产能投资的因素存在明显的差异。Chinese economy is facing large pressure from gross or structural over-capacity in multiple industries. This phenomenon can＇t be totally explained by shock in business cycle and expansive monetary or fiscal policy. It should also be analyzed from firms＇ competition strategy in capacity investment and industry organization policy. Using micro data in Chinese passenger-vehicle industry from 2000 to 2013, this study analyzes strategic motivation of thirty manufacturers＇ capacity expansion behavior in this industry. Main findings include that （1） a firm＇s probability to increase capacity investment positively relates to its rivals＇ expansion behavior, which proves the existence of ＂ wave phenomena＂ or ＂bandwagon effect＂; （2） there is no certain relationship between a firm＇s new capacity investment and previous industry- level capacity utilization or demand growth ; （3） the government＇s regulation on capacity investment only achieves its goal in a certain period. Although ＂wave phenomena＂ or ＂bandwagon effect＂ is supported by the Probit model, there is no exact evidence that incumbents have used capacity expansion for market share maintenance or entry deterrence. Furthermore, calculation of marginal effect on capacity expansion of joint ventures and indigenous brands finds that capacity investment of this two kinds of manufacturers are motivated by obviously different factors. This study has important practical implication for the on-going supply-side structural reform. To avoid secondary distortion in the design of industry policy, policy makers should consider the micro reasonability in competition-driven excess capacity. Measures dominated by government such as merger and acquisition, closing down of outdated capacity only work as an early-warning mechanism and not interference firms＇ investment behavior.

关 键 词：产能扩张 竞争驱动 潮涌现象 产业政策 汽车产业 

分 类 号：F426.471[经济管理—产业经济]