月动力延伸预测产品DERF2.0对广西气温和降水的预测评估  

Temperature and precipitation evaluation of monthly Dynamic extended range forecast Operational system DERF2.0 in Guangxi

作　　者：陈思蓉 周秀华 陆虹 何慧根[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西区气候中心,广西南宁530022 [2]重庆市气候中心,重庆401147

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2016年第3期16-19,I0004,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目(2013GXNSFBA019219);国家气候中心公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306021)

摘　　要：基于国家气候中心第二代月动力延伸预测模式业务系统（DERF2．0）开展的1983～2015年的回报试验结果和广西87个台站气象资料，利用距平相关系数ACC、距平符号一致率R和短期气候预测业务趋势异常综合评分（Ps）等3种方法，综合评估了DERF2．0系统对广西的气温和降水的预测性能。结果表明：DERF2．0模式对广西月气温的总体预测效果优于降水，气温与降水的预测效果有明显的月季变化，气温和降水在夏季的总体预报效果不好，但对降水异常的把握程度较高。DERF2．0对广西发生在1994、1996、1998、2005年6、7月的典型洪涝个例有一定的预测能力，影响模式6、7月降水预报误差的原因可能是模式对中高纬度阻塞系统预报偏差，模式仍有很大的改进空间。Based on the hindcast data from 1983 to 2015supplied by the National Climate Center second-generation monthly Dynamic Range Forecast operational system （DERF2.0） and the data of 87 meteorological stations of Guangxi, temperature and precipitation performance were evaluated and analyzed by using the anomaly coefficient （ACC） , anomaly sign consistency rate （R） and short-term climate predication operational grading evaluation scores （Ps） . The results show indicated that compared with temperature, the precipitation prediction performance of DERF2.0 was relatively poor. Both of their predictions have obvious monthly changes. The overall forecast of temperature and precipitation in summer are not good, but performance good in the precipitation anomaly. DERF2.0 has certain ability in predicting the typical flood of Guangxi in 1994, 1996, 1998, 1996 in June and July, while precipitation forecast error may be caused by the deviation of block system in high latitudes, so the mode still gets a lot to improve.

关 键 词：DERF2.0 气候预测 性能评估 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]