低频天气图方法在4-9月辽宁干旱月预报中的应用  

Application of Low Frequency Synoptic Chart in Monthly Predicting of Severe Drought in Liaoning Province

作　　者：胡春丽[1,2] 焦敏[1] 李辑[1] 王婉昭[1] 李菲[3] 马锋敏[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱研究所,兰州730020 [2]辽宁省气象科学研究所,沈阳110166 [3]沈阳区域气候中心,沈阳110166 [4]江西省气候中心,南昌330046

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2016年第3期48-51,共4页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：中国气象局关键技术与集成项目CMAGJ2013M55;中国气象局兰州干旱研究所干旱气象科学研究基金项目(ZAM201311)

摘　　要：利用2008-2013年500h Pa NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析风场和位势高度场资料及辽宁省54站逐日降水资料,采用低频天气图方法,对辽宁干旱有影响的9个低频预报关键区,分析各个关键区低频系统的特征及其与干旱过程的分析,找出它们之间有联系,建立干旱过程低频预报概念模型,并对2013年干旱过程进行了回报,预报效果较好。Based on the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis of 500hPa geopotential height and winds as well as daily rainfall data of 53 stations in Liaoning Province from 2008 to 2013, the method of low frequency synoptic chart is applied to forecast severe drought process in Liaoning Province. The synoptic key regions are determined and its relationship with the severe drought process is also analyzed and then the concept model of forecast of low frequency is established. The model is applied to hindcast the severe drought process of 2013. Using the example of 2009, the relationships of severe drought process with the intraseasonal oscillation are further examined.

关 键 词：低频天气图 延伸期 干旱过程 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]