肇庆市近54a气温变化特征分析  

Characteristic analysis of temperature variation during recent 54 years in Zhaoqing

作　　者：陈国贞 李文辉 翁佳烽 

机构地区：[1]肇庆市气象局,广东肇庆526040

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2016年第3期94-97,共4页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：肇庆市气象局科学技术研究项目(201503)<肇庆市气候监测服务平台设计>

摘　　要：采用统计分析方法、Mann-Kendall法和小波分析等方法，对1961～2014年肇庆市6个区域气象观测站的年平均气温、季平均气温、年最高气温和年最低气温等气候要素作了较全面的分析。结果表明：近54a来肇庆市6个区域年平均气温呈显著上升趋势，增温速率最高为广宁县，0．24℃（10a）^-1，最低为怀集县，0．11℃（10a）^-1；季平均气温变化幅度最大的是秋季，其次为冬季，变化幅度最小为夏季；年最高气温除怀集县呈下降趋势，其余5个区域均呈上升趋势，而年最低气温6个区域均呈显著上升趋势；肇庆市气候变暖主要是由秋季和冬季的升温增暖造成的；近54a来封开县发生两次气温突变，其余地区在80到90年代先后发生增温性突变；周期分析显示，肇庆市年平均气温均具有30a、12a、8a和5a的周期性特征。Based on the statistical analysis method, Mann-Kendall method and wavelet analysis methods, annual average temperature, average temperature, annual highest temperature and minimum temperature climate factors in zhaoqing city from 1961 to 2014 in the six regional meteorological observations were comprehensively analyzed. The results show that annual average temperature in six regions show significant increasing tendency during the recent 54 a with the highest increasing rate in Guangning （0.24℃ （10 a） -1） and the lowest in Huaiji （ 0.11 ℃ （10 a） -1） ; the largest seasonal average temperature changes is in autumn, followed by the winter, the last one is in summer; The annually highest temperature present downward trend except in Huaiji, while the minimum temperature in six areas showed a trend of increase significantly; climate warming in Zhaoqing city is mainly caused by the warming of the heating in the fall and winter; Nearly 54 a there are two temperature mutations in Fengkai county, the rest of the region occurred inversion mutation in the 80 s to 90 s; Cycle analysis indicates that the annual average temperature of Zhaoqing city have 30 a, 12 a, 8 a and 5 a periodic features.

关 键 词：年平均气温 MANN-KENDALL法 小波分析 气温变化 肇庆市 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]