能源工业发展、环境治理对火电碳排放的响应贡献——基于陕西省1995—2014年火电碳排放数据实证  

Energy Industry Development and Environmental Governance for Responding Mechanism and Contribution Degree of Thermal Power Carbon Emission——Based on Thermat Power Carbon Emission of Shanxi in 1955—2014

作　　者：王小辉[1] 姚炳楠 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2016年第12期1427-1430,1505,共5页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41501093);西安市社会科学规划重点项目(编号:2015EA03);陕西省社会科学规划项目"陕西省人为源碳排放动力演化机制与调控策略研究"(编号:2016R022)

摘　　要：借鉴国家推荐方法测算1995—2014年陕西省火电碳排放数据,以能源工业发展、环境治理指标作为内生变量,采用协整方法和误差修正模型分析三者的长期均衡与短期影响机制,基于方差分解细化了动态能源工业发展、环境治理对火电碳排放的贡献度。结果表明：陕西省火电碳排放从1995年的1891.63×10^4t增加到2010年峰值的11086.14×10^4t,此后由于能源效率的提升碳排放下降。长期看,陕西省应逐步减缓火电碳排放量,能源工业发展与环境治理的贡献度为5%和6%,具有较大的提升空间。This paper mainly discussed the response mechanism and contribution among energy industry development, environmental governance and thermal power carbon emission. Data which obtained was used as dependent variable to calculate Shanxi Province＇s thermal power carbon emission in 1995 - 2004, taking the development of energy industry and environmental governance indicators as the endogenous variables. Cointegration and er- ror correction model was used for the analysis of the long - term equilibrium and short - term impact mechanism. Based on the variance decomposi- tion, refined the dynamic development of the energy industry, environmental governance of power carbon emission contribution degree. The research showed that the carbon emission of thermal power in Shanxi Province increased from 1891.63 x 104t in 1995 to 11086.14 x 10^4t in 2010,and then the promotion of energy efficiency brought a decline in carbon emissions. In the long run, gradually slow down the carbon emissions of thermal power could be reached.The contribution degree of this two factors were about 5% and 6% respectively,which had a larger space for improvement.

关 键 词：能源工业发展 环境治理 火电碳排放 响应机制 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]