我国油菜籽价格波动风险及预警机制研究  

Study on the risk of fluctuations and warning mechanism of China's rapeseed price

作　　者：刘成[1] 钱涛[1] 覃丹 冯中朝[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院 [2]武汉城市职业技术学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2016年第9期81-84,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家"现代农业产业技术体系建设"专项(编号:CARS-0013);国家自然科学基金(编号:71273103;71473100);国家"万人计划"青年拔尖人才支持计划

摘　　要：2015年6月,国家取消了执行7年之久的油菜籽临储收购政策,油菜籽价格开始随行就市,完全由市场决定。然而,2015年取消临储政策以后,国内油菜籽价格出现大幅下跌,农民种植收益下降,种植意愿不高,油菜产业的健康发展面临一定的风险。因此,本文在分析我国油菜籽市场短期风险的基础上,探讨建立油菜价格预警机制,通过分析油菜籽历史价格数据设置油菜籽价格波动警度与警限,并建立警源分析模型;最后,对建立油菜籽价格预警机制给出相关政策建议。In June 2015, the state canceled the temporary storage of rapeseed acquisition policy which has executed of 7 years, rapeseed prices began to follow the market and completely determined by the market. However, after the abolition of the temporary storage policy in 2015,domestic rapeseed prices fell sharply, the income of farmers decline and planting willingness is not high,the healthy development of rape industry face certain risks.Therefore,based on the analysis of the short-term risk of China＇s rapeseed market, exploring the establishment of warning mechanism in rapeseed prices,through the analysis of historical price data set of rapeseed price fluctuation and warning alarm limit,and establish the police source analysis model;Finally,putting forward the relevant policy suggestions to the establishment of rapeseed prices warning mechanism.

关 键 词：油菜籽 油菜籽价格 临储政策 价格预警机制 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]