基于VAR模型的山东省渔业转型升级影响因素研究  

The influence factor research on value the transformation and upgrade of fishery in Shandong province by using the VAR model

作　　者：孙蕾蕾[1] 于潇[2] SUN Lei-lei YU Xiao(School of Public Health and Management, Binzhou Medical University, Shandong Yantai 264003, China School of Business Administration, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Shandong Jinan 250014, China)

机构地区：[1]滨州医学院公共卫生与管理学院,山东烟台264003 [2]山东财经大学工商管理学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2016年第4期69-76,共8页Chinese Fisheries Economics

摘　　要：近年来,由于过度捕捞和环境污染等因素,山东省传统渔业转型升级的问题亟需解决。论文基于价值链以及微笑曲线理论,选取了渔业流通和服务水平、渔业加工水平、政府支持力度和渔业科技创新水平四方面作为山东省渔业转型升级的影响因素,构建了向量自回归(VAR)模型,运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解进行实证分析,得出对山东省渔业转型升级的影响顺序依次是渔业流通和服务业、渔业科技创新水平、渔业加工水平和政府支持力度,并提出加速发展渔业流通和服务业、稳步提升渔业加工水平、合理加大政府支持力度和持续提高渔业科技创新水平的政策建议。In recent years, due to the factors such as overfishing and pollution of the environment, the transformation and upgrade of traditional fishery in Shandong province is a matter of great urgency. This article based on the theory of value chain and the smiling curve, chooses the circulation and service of fishery, the level of fishery processing, government support and fishery research and innovation level as the influence factors of transformation and upgrade of fisheries in Shandong province, constructs the vector auto-regressive（VAR） model, uses the cointegration test, impulse response analysis technology and variance decomposition to analyze. According to the result, the order of the impact on the transformation and upgrade of fishery in Shandong province sequence is the circulation and service of fishery, fishery research and innovation level, the level of fishery processing and government support. And this article puts forward to some policy suggestions of speeding up the development of the circulation and service of fishery, steadily enhance the level of fishery processing, reasonably intensify government support and inveriably improve the level of fishery research and innovation level.

关 键 词：向量自回归(VAR)模型 渔业经济 山东渔业 转型升级 

分 类 号：F326.407[经济管理—产业经济]