中国碳排放强度的区域差异、趋势演进与影响因素分析——基于30个省(市、区)1997—2012年面板数据  

REGIONAL VARIANCE,TREND EVOLUTION AND FACTORS OF CHINA'S CARBON EMISSION INTENSITY BASED ON 30 PROVINCES(CITIES AND DISTRICTS)' 1997—2012 PANEL DATA

作　　者：胡渊[1] 刘峻峰[1] 胡伟[1] 张震[1] HU Yuan LIU Jun-feng HU Wei ZHANG Zhen(Research Center of Oceanic Economy and Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《资源与产业》2016年第5期7-13,共7页Resources & Industries

摘　　要：采用IPCC的计算方法,测算中国30个省(市、区)1997—2012年能源消费和水泥生产产生的碳排放,并以碳排放强度为指标,采用Theil指数、Kernel核密度估计和广义矩估计,分别对中国碳排放强度的区域差异、趋势演进和影响因素进行分析。研究结果显示:1)中国东部、中部、西部和东北部4个区域碳排放强度存在明显的区域差异,总体分布差异主要来自于区域内差异;2)全国和4个区域的碳排放强度在样本考察期内呈下降态势,碳排放强度的分布总体上呈现出从分散到集聚的态势;3)碳排放强度的滞后项、城市化水平、对外贸易开放度和能源消费结构对碳排放强度有正影响,产业结构和能源效率对碳排放强度有负影响。This paper uses IPCC to measure the carbon emission in energy consumption and cement production in China＇s 30 Provinces during 1997 —2012,and applies Theil index and Kernel Density generalized matrix measurement to analyze the regional variance,trend evolution and factors of China＇s carbon emission intensity. The results show an outstanding variance among eastern,central,western and northeastern with overall distribution variance coming from internal region. The carbon emission intensity has a falling trend in the above four regions with a concentrating distribution. The lagging item,urbanization level,foreign trading openness and energy consumption structure have a positive influence on carbon emission intensity,but the industrial structure and energy efficiency are negative.

关 键 词：碳排放强度 THEIL指数 Kernel核密度 广义矩估计 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]