全球气候治理中的科学评估与政治谈判  

Scientific Assessments and Political Negotiations in Global Climate Governance

作　　者：董亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]外交学院亚洲研究所

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2016年第11期62-83,共22页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：中国-东盟思想库网络2016年重大研究课题"东亚区域合作发展演变趋势"(课题编号:NACT16-21)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：全球气候治理中科学与政治的关系主要体现在评估与谈判上。国际气候评估与谈判通过议程、评审及机制协调所产生的影响已成为全球气候治理的主要特征。纵观过去30年的国际气候治理历史,两者大体呈现出评估推动谈判、大国否定评估、评估破坏谈判、谈判支配评估的关系。两者形成了以下规律:气候领域内科学不确定性越高,国际谈判越需要评估的持续参与;评估结论在国际谈判中接受度越高,其影响力越大,而评估机构的影响力越大,越需要在国际谈判进程中证明其可靠性;国际气候评估机构影响力越大,大国越容易干预评估过程和控制评估结论。两者关系的变迁源于两个维度:一是评估内部的科学共识与制度设计开放性。共识度越高、评估制度设计越具开放性,评估越容易推动谈判的进程。二是外部因素,如大国干预及评估结论在传播中的影响。大国过度干预评估,或是评估在传播中被国际媒体误用,会导致评估与谈判形成消极关系。The relations between science and politics are markedly reflected in assessment and negotiations in global climate governance. The interplay between international climate assessment and negotiation has been a main feature of global climate governance. The interplay is generated by three mechanisms( agendas, government review and institutional coordination),shaping four patterns( promotion,refusal,damage and assistance). The relations are played out in the following way. First,the higher scientific uncertainty in the global climate change,the more sustained participation of international scientific assessments is needed in international negotiations. Second,the high-er degree of assessment is accepted by negotiations, the greater the influence of the scientific institution exerts. The more influence of international assessment organization has,the more it needs to prove the reliability of its assessment in the international negotiation. Third, the greater influence that the climate assessment organization owns,the more often the major powers intervene in institutional design and assessment process. Changes of the interplay between the two stem from both internal and external dimensions: First, the scientific consensus on climate change, IPCC assessment process,institution design. The higher degree of scientific consensus and openness to assessment institution, the more easily for assessment to facilitate negotiations, and thus the positive interplay mode is formed. Second,the major powers' intervention in the dissemination and interplay of the assessment process. Excessive intervention over assessment design and process and misuse by other actors will lead to the formation of negative interplays.

关 键 词：气候变化 气候评估 气候谈判 全球治理 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]