中美权力博弈与新型大国关系的演进——基于公共产品与关系专用性投资的视角  

The Power Game Between China and the U.S.and the Evolution of New Type of Major-Country Relationship from the Perspective of Public Products and Relationship Specific Investment

作　　者：冯维江[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2016年第11期106-128,共23页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：辽宁大学刘洪钟教授主持的"亚太地区的政经互动"项目的支持

摘　　要：一个稳定的国际权力构架是霸权国向诸国有效提供公共产品,而诸国向霸权国进行关系专用性投资的双向保证结构。随着诸国中某些国家的崛起,一方面霸权国无力提供充足的公共产品,另一方面崛起国不愿意单方面继续承担高成本的关系专用性投资,稳定的双向保证结构趋于失衡。这是旧的中美关系稳定性逐渐丧失背后的政治经济逻辑。未来的中美关系面临两个前景:其一是演化为对峙的两国,各自对权力范围内的诸国提供公益产品并接受诸国的关系专用性投资,同时对外提供威慑程度相当的公害产品,由此形成双中心形式的传统大国对峙的平行式平衡体系;其二是中美互相进行充足的关系专用性投资并接受诸国的关系专用性投资,同时共同对诸国提供公共产品,使世界恢复到联合中心形式的新型大国关系为核心的稳定国际权力结构。中国可以继续加大对"一带一路"或"朋友圈"的公共产品投入,甚至可以增加与美国主要盟友之间的相互关系专用性投资,以此作为对美国尽快做出正确决断的倒逼,但不宜显著地进一步降低对美国的已有关系专用性投资存量。A reassurance structure,in which the hegemon provides public goods toother countries and at the same time the other countries make relationship specific investment in the power frame held by the hegemon,could keep the international community in peace and balance. However,as some of the other countries rise and become more and more powerful,the hegemon could not provide enough public goods on the one hand,the rising power would not continue to make costly relationship specific investment in the old power frame on the other hand. The stable reassurance structure would become unbalanced. This is the political and economic logic for explaining the gradually unbalanced Sino-U.S. relations. There are two prospects of the Sino-U. S. relations. Firstly,the world is broken into two parts and China and the U.S. will go to confrontation,even to war. Secondly, China and the U. S. make relationship specific investment in each other and provide public goods to the world together, which will make the world more peaceful,safe and prosperous.

关 键 词：公共产品 关系专用性投资 中美新型大国关系 “修昔底德陷阱” 权力结构 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]