多方法组合模式对川滇地区强震发生的回溯性检验  

Retrospective Test of Strong Earthquakes in Sichuan—Yunnan Region Using a Combination of Multi-methods

作　　者：周发仁[1] 余怀忠[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [2]中国地震台网中心,北京100045

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2016年第2期268-277,共10页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：地震科技星火计划项目(XH12058);中美国际科技合作项目(2010DFB20190)

摘　　要：使用多方法组合模式对川滇地区近年来的强震进行回溯性检验,并尝试给出川滇地区组合预测的最佳参数模型。首先采用图像信息(PI)法进行全面扫描,从长期尺度上找出地震活动异常的地区;然后采用加卸载响应比(LURR)、态矢量(SV)法进一步估计地震发生的中短期可能;在此基础上使用矩张量加速释放(AMR)法估算地震发生的相关信息。震例研究显示,川滇地区2012-01-01—2014-12-31期间共发生M>5.5地震13次,除2013年8月31日云南中甸地震外,其余12次地震均发生在组合方法最终划定的危险区内,且时间、震级也基本一致。这一研究结果表明,相对于单一算法,将不同前兆方法适当组合能够更加明确地为未来地震危险性评估提供信息和约束。This study develops a composite approach for the evaluation of seismic hazards using a combi-nation of four methods：PI （Pattern Informatics）,LURR （Load/Unload Repose Ration）,SV （State Vec-tor）,and AMR （Accelerate Moment Release）.The PI method is firstly used to locate changes surround-ing the epicenters of large earthquakes,thus obj ectively quantifying anomalous areas （hot spots）relating to upcoming events.Areas where large earthquakes are expected are then detected by covering the hotspots with circular critical regions from low to high latitude and longitude.The short-to-intermediate-term earthquake potential in critical regions are evaluated using the LURR and SV methods.Finally,the AMR method is used to assess the timing and magnitude of the predicted earthquake in each critical re-gion.Retrospective tests of this approach for large earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5 .5 in the Sichuan—Yunnan region from 2012-01-01 to 2014-12-31 show that most of the earthquakes occurred in the predicted seismic hazard regions.The predicted timing and magnitude correlate well with actual earth-quakes.For some earthquakes,such as the Aug.31,2013 M5.9 Zhongdian earthquake,significant anoma-lies are found when the combined approach is used,which are not detected using a single method.Thus, by using the approach,it is possible to screen out false-alarms that occur when using a single method, without reducing the hit rate,and therefore effectively augment the predictive ability.The results show that in comparison with the use of any single method,this combined approach may provide clear informa-tion and constraints for use in future seismic hazard assessments.

关 键 词：多方法组合 川滇地区 地震预测 回溯性检验 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学]